Repository for Oil and Gas Energy Research (ROGER)

Abstract:
We present an updated fuel-based oil and gas (FOG) inventory with estimates of nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions from oil and natural gas production in the contiguous US (CONUS). We compare the FOG inventory with aircraft-derived (“top-down”) emissions for NOx over footprints that account for ∼25% of US oil and natural gas production. Across CONUS, we find that the bottom-up FOG inventory combined with other anthropogenic emissions is on average within ∼10% of top-down aircraft-derived NOx emissions. We also find good agreement in the trends of NOx from drilling- and production-phase activities, as inferred by satellites and in the bottom-up inventory. Leveraging tracer−tracer relationships derived from aircraft observations, methane (CH4) and non-methane volatile organic compound (NMVOC) emissions have been added to the inventory. Our total CONUS emission estimates for 2015 of oil and natural gas are 0.45 ± 0.14 Tg NOx/yr, 15.2 ± 3.0 Tg CH4/yr, and 5.7 ± 1.7 Tg NMVOC/yr. Compared to the US National Emissions Inventory and Greenhouse Gas Inventory, FOG NOx emissions are ∼40% lower, while inferred CH4 and NMVOC emissions are up to a factor of ∼2 higher. This suggests that NMVOC/NOx emissions from oil and gas basins are ∼3 times higher than current estimates and will likely affect how air quality models represent ozone formation downwind of oil and gas fields.

Abstract:
Recently, oil and natural gas (O&NG) production activities in the Denver-Julesburg Basin have expanded rapidly. Associated nonmethane hydrocarbon (NMHC) emissions contribute to photochemical formation of ground-level ozone and include benzene as well as other hazardous air pollutants. Using positive matrix factorization (PMF) and chemical mass balance (CMB) methods, we estimate how much O&NG activities and other sources contribute to morning NMHC mixing ratios measured from 2013 to mid-2016 at a site in Platteville, CO, in the Denver-Julesburg Basin, and at a contrasting site in downtown Denver. A novel adjoint sensitivity analysis method is then used to estimate corresponding contributions to ozone and ozone-linked mortality in the Denver region. Average 6–9 am NMHC mixing ratios in Platteville were seven times higher than those in Denver in 2013 but four times higher in 2016. CMB estimates that O&NG activities contributed to the Platteville (Denver) site an average of 96% (56%) of NMHC on a carbon basis while PMF indicated 92% (33%). Average vehicle-related contributions of NMHC are estimated as 41% by CMB and 53% by PMF in Denver. Estimates of the fractional contribution to potential ozone and ozone-linked mortality from O&NG activities are smaller while those from vehicles are larger than the NMHC contributions. CMB (PMF) indicate that greater than 78% (40%) of annual average benzene in Denver is attributable to vehicle emissions while greater than 75% (67%) of benzene in Platteville is attributable to O&NG activities.

Abstract:
Observations of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from a surface sampling network and simulation results from the EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy for Atmospheric Chemistry) model were analyzed to assess the impact of increased emissions of VOCs and nitrogen oxides from U.S. oil and natural gas (O&NG) sources on air quality. In the first step, the VOC observations were used to optimize the magnitude and distribution of atmospheric ethane and higher-alkane VOC emissions in the model inventory for the base year 2009. Observation-based increases of the emissions of VOCs and NOx stemming from U.S. oil and natural gas (O&NG) sources during 2009–2014 were then added to the model, and a set of sensitivity runs was conducted for assessing the influence of the increased emissions on summer surface ozone levels. For the year 2014, the added O&NG emissions are predicted to affect surface ozone across a large geographical scale in the United States. These emissions are responsible for an increased number of days when the averaged 8-h ozone values exceed 70 ppb, with the highest sensitivity being in the central and midwestern United States, where most of the O&NG growth has occurred. These findings demonstrate that O&NG emissions significantly affect the air quality across most of the United States, can regionally offset reductions of ozone precursor emissions made in other sectors, and can have a determining influence on a region’s ability to meet National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) obligations for ozone.

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Article: Air quality measurements in the western Eagle Ford Shale

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Article: Air quality impacts from oil and natural gas development in Colorado

Abstract:
The Marcellus and Utica shale formations have recently been the focus of intense natural gas development and production, increasing regional air pollutant emissions. Here we examine the effects of these emissions on regional ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) levels using the chemical transport model, CAMx, and estimate the public health costs with BenMAP. Simulations were performed for three emissions scenarios for the year 2020 that span a range potential development storylines. In areas with the most gas development, the ‘Medium Emissions’ scenario, which corresponds to an intermediate level of development and widespread adoption of new equipment with lower emissions, is predicted to increase 8-hourly ozone design values by up to 2.5 ppbv and average annual PM2.5 concentrations by as much as 0.27 μg/m3. These impacts could range from as much as a factor of two higher to a factor of three lower depending on the level of development and the adoption of emission controls. Smaller impacts (e.g. 0.1–0.5 ppbv of ozone, depending on the emissions scenario) are predicted for non-attainment areas located downwind of the Marcellus region such as New York City, Philadelphia and Washington, DC. Premature deaths for the ‘Medium Emissions’ scenario are predicted to increase by 200–460 annually. The health impacts as well as the changes in ozone and PM2.5 were all driven primarily by NOx emissions.

Abstract:
This study investigates long-term (i.e., 2007–2014) fluctuations in ambient ozone formation regimes for cities adjacent to shale plays in the Northeast United States (U.S.). Ozone air quality in many cities of the Northeast U.S. does not meet the U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS), and understanding ambient ozone formation regimes is essential to develop effective air pollution mitigation strategies for cities violating the air quality standards. Since 2013, the U.S. has become the world’s largest producer of tight oil and natural gas from shale rock, and previous studies show that emissions of air pollutant precursors from shale oil and gas-related activities would have the potential to affect ambient ozone air quality in adjacent cities of shale plays. This work leveraged (1) satellite-retrieved column densities of formaldehyde (HCHO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) from multiple instruments (i.e., Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2)); (2) photochemical air quality modeling and sensitivity analysis; and (3) ratios of satellite-retrieved air pollutant column densities to investigate ambient ozone formation regimes in neighboring cities of shale plays (i.e., Marcellus Shale) in the Northeast U.S. from 2007 to 2014. Our results show that ambient ozone formation in Boston, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Washington, D.C. (which are close to Marcellus Shale) was in the NOx -limited or transition regime during the period of study. Ambient ozone formation in New York City was in the transition regime during 2010–2013 and VOC -limited regime during 2007–2009 and in 2014. Based on the result of this study, we conclude that controls NOx emissions would mitigate ozone air pollution from 2007 to 2014 in most of the cities examined in this study. Controls of local VOC emissions would ease ozone air pollution in New York City during the study period. With projected increases in oil and gas production from shale plays in the Northeast U.S., air pollutant emissions from oil and gas-related activities are expected to increase in the future. The results of this study imply that controls of ozone precursor emissions from shale oil and gas-related activities could be a potential strategy for reducing ambient ozone formation in cities adjacent to the shale plays in Northeast U.S. in the future.

Abstract:
The Northern Colorado Front Range (NCFR) has been in exceedance of the ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) since 2004, which has led to much debate over the sources of ozone precursors to the region, as this area is home to both the Denver metropolitan area and the Denver-Julesburg Basin, which has experienced rapid growth of oil and natural gas (O&NG) operations and associated emissions. Several recent studies have reported elevated levels of atmospheric volatile organic compounds (VOC) as a result of O&NG emissions and the potential for significant ozone production from these emissions, despite implementation of stricter O&NG VOC emissions regulations in 2008. Approximately 88% of 1-hr elevated ozone events (>75 ppbv) occur from June - August, indicating that elevated ozone levels are driven by regional photochemistry. Analyses of surface ozone and wind observations from two sites, i.e. South Boulder, and the Boulder Atmospheric Observatory, both near Boulder, Colorado, show a preponderance of elevated ozone events associated with east to west air flow from regions with O&NG operations in the N-ESE, and a relatively minor contribution of transport from the Denver Metropolitan area to the SE-S. Transport from upwind areas associated with abundant O&NG operations accounts for on the order of 65% (mean for both sites) of 1-hr averaged elevated ozone levels, while the Denver urban corridor accounts for 9%. These correlations contribute to mounting evidence that air transport from areas with O&NG operation has a significant impact on ozone and air quality in the NCFR.Implication StatementThis article builds on several previous pieces of research that implied significant contributions from oil and natural gas emissions on ozone production in the Northern Colorado Front Range. By correlating increased ozone events with transport analyses we show that there is a high abundance of transport events with elevated ozone originating from the Denver Julesburg oil and gas basin. These findings will help air quality regulators to better assess contributing sources to ozone production and in directing policies to curb ozone pollution in this region.

Abstract:
Over the past decade, substantial growth in shale gas exploration and production across the US has changed the country's energy outlook. Beyond its economic benefits, the negative impacts of shale gas development on air and water are less well known. In this study the relationship between shale gas activities and ground-level ozone pollution was statistically evaluated. The Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) area in north-central Texas was selected as the study region. The Barnett Shale, which is one the most productive and fastest growing shale gas fields in the US, is located in the western half of DFW. Hourly meteorological and ozone data were acquired for fourteen years from monitoring stations established and operated by the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ). The area was divided into two regions, the shale gas region (SGR) and the non-shale gas (NSGR) region, according to the number of gas wells in close proximity to each monitoring site. The study period was also divided into 2000-2006 and 2007-2013 because the western half of DFW has experienced significant growth in shale gas activities since 2007. An evaluation of the raw ozone data showed that, while the overall trend in the ozone concentration was down over the entire region, the monitoring sites in the NSGR showed an additional reduction of 4% in the annual number of ozone exceedance days than those in the SGR. Directional analysis of ozone showed that the winds blowing from areas with high shale gas activities contributed to higher ozone downwind. KZ-filtering method and linear regression techniques were used to remove the effects of meteorological variations on ozone and to construct long-term and short-term meteorologically adjusted (M.A.) ozone time series. The mean value of all M.A. ozone components was 8% higher in the sites located within the SGR than in the NSGR. These findings may be useful for understanding the overall impact of shale gas activities on the local and regional ozone pollution.

Abstract:
Emissions from oil and natural gas development during winter in the Upper Green River basin of Wyoming are known to drive episodic ozone (O3) production. Contrasting O3 distributions were observed in the winters of 2011 and 2012, with numerous episodes (hourly O3 ≥ 85 ppbv) in 2011 compared to none in 2012. The lack of O3 episodes in 2012 coincided with a reduction in measured ambient levels of total non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHC). Measurements of speciated NMHC, and other air quality parameters, were performed to better understand emission sources and to determine which compounds are most active in promoting O3 formation. Positive matrix factorization (PMF) analyses of the data were carried out to help achieve these goals. PMF analyses revealed three contributing factors that were identified with different emission source types: factor 1, combustion/traffic; factor 2, fugitive natural gas; and factor 3, fugitive condensate. Compositional signatures of the three contributing factors were identified through comparison with independently derived emission source profiles. Fugitive emissions of natural gas and of condensate were the two principal emission source types for NMHC. A water treatment and recycling facility was found to be a significant source of NMHC that are abundant in condensate, in particular toluene and m+p-xylene. Emissions from water treatment have an influence upon peak O3 mixing ratios at downwind measurement sites.

Abstract:
The combined emissions and air quality impacts of electricity generation in the Texas grid and natural gas production in the Eagle Ford shale were estimated at various natural gas price points for the power sector. The increased use of natural gas in the power sector, in place of coal-fired power generation, drove reductions in average daily maximum 8-hr ozone concentration of 0.6 ppb to 1.3 ppb in northeastern Texas for a high ozone episode used in air quality planning. The associated increase in Eagle Ford upstream oil and gas production nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions caused an estimated local increase, in South Texas, of 0.3 ppb to 0.7 ppb in the same ozone metric. In addition, the potential ozone impacts of Eagle Ford emissions on nearby urban areas were estimated. Based on evidence from this work and a previous study on the Barnett shale, the combined ozone impact of increased natural gas development and use in the power sector is likely to vary regionally and must be analyzed on a case by case basis.

Abstract:
Objective Short-term exposure to ground-level ozone has been linked to adverse respiratory and other health effects; previous studies typically have focused on summer ground-level ozone in urban areas. During 2008–2011, Sublette County, Wyoming (population: ~10,000 persons), experienced periods of elevated ground-level ozone concentrations during the winter. This study sought to evaluate the association of daily ground-level ozone concentrations and health clinic visits for respiratory disease in this rural county. Methods Clinic visits for respiratory disease were ascertained from electronic billing records of the two clinics in Sublette County for January 1, 2008–December 31, 2011. A time-stratified case-crossover design, adjusted for temperature and humidity, was used to investigate associations between ground-level ozone concentrations measured at one station and clinic visits for a respiratory health concern by using an unconstrained distributed lag of 0–3 days and single-day lags of 0 day, 1 day, 2 days, and 3 days. Results The data set included 12,742 case-days and 43,285 selected control-days. The mean ground-level ozone observed was 47±8 ppb. The unconstrained distributed lag of 0–3 days was consistent with a null association (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.001; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.990–1.012); results for lags 0, 2, and 3 days were consistent with the null. However, the results for lag 1 were indicative of a positive association; for every 10-ppb increase in the 8-h maximum average ground-level ozone, a 3.0% increase in respiratory clinic visits the following day was observed (aOR: 1.031; 95% CI: 0.994–1.069). Season modified the adverse respiratory effects: ground-level ozone was significantly associated with respiratory clinic visits during the winter months. The patterns of results from all sensitivity analyzes were consistent with the a priori model. Conclusions The results demonstrate an association of increasing ground-level ozone with an increase in clinic visits for adverse respiratory-related effects in the following day (lag day 1) in Sublette County; the magnitude was strongest during the winter months; this association during the winter months in a rural location warrants further investigation.

Abstract:
Recent increases in oil and natural gas (NG) production throughout the western US have come with scientific and public interest in emission rates, air quality and climate impacts related to this industry. This study uses a regional-scale air quality model (WRF-Chem) to simulate high ozone (O3) episodes during the winter of 2013 over the Uinta Basin (UB) in northeastern Utah, which is densely populated by thousands of oil and NG wells. The high-resolution meteorological simulations are able qualitatively to reproduce the wintertime cold pool conditions that occurred in 2013, allowing the model to reproduce the observed multi-day buildup of atmospheric pollutants and the accompanying rapid photochemical ozone formation in the UB. Two different emission scenarios for the oil and NG sector were employed in this study. The first emission scenario (bottom-up) was based on the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) National Emission Inventory (NEI) (2011, version 1) for the oil and NG sector for the UB. The second emission scenario (top-down) was based on estimates of methane (CH4) emissions derived from in situ aircraft measurements and a regression analysis for multiple species relative to CH4 concentration measurements in the UB. Evaluation of the model results shows greater underestimates of CH4 and other volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the simulation with the NEI-2011 inventory than in the case when the top-down emission scenario was used. Unlike VOCs, the NEI-2011 inventory significantly overestimates the emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx), while the top-down emission scenario results in a moderate negative bias. The model simulation using the top-down emission case captures the buildup and afternoon peaks observed during high O3 episodes. In contrast, the simulation using the bottom-up inventory is not able to reproduce any of the observed high O3 concentrations in the UB. Simple emission reduction scenarios show that O3 production is VOC sensitive and NOx insensitive within the UB. The model results show a disproportionate contribution of aromatic VOCs to O3 formation relative to all other VOC emissions. The model analysis reveals that the major factors driving high wintertime O3 in the UB are shallow boundary layers with light winds, high emissions of VOCs from oil and NG operations compared to NOx emissions, enhancement of photolysis fluxes and reduction of O3 loss from deposition due to snow cover.

Abstract:
The United States is now experiencing the most rapid expansion in oil and gas production in four decades, owing in large part to implementation of new extraction technologies such as horizontal drilling combined with hydraulic fracturing. The environmental impacts of this development, from its effect on water quality to the influence of increased methane leakage on climate, have been a matter of intense debate. Air quality impacts are associated with emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), whose photochemistry leads to production of ozone, a secondary pollutant with negative health effects. Recent observations in oil- and gas-producing basins in the western United States have identified ozone mixing ratios well in excess of present air quality standards, but only during winter. Understanding winter ozone production in these regions is scientifically challenging. It occurs during cold periods of snow cover when meteorological inversions concentrate air pollutants from oil and gas activities, but when solar irradiance and absolute humidity, which are both required to initiate conventional photochemistry essential for ozone production, are at a minimum. Here, using data from a remote location in the oil and gas basin of northeastern Utah and a box model, we provide a quantitative assessment of the photochemistry that leads to these extreme winter ozone pollution events, and identify key factors that control ozone production in this unique environment. We find that ozone production occurs at lower NOx and much larger VOC concentrations than does its summertime urban counterpart, leading to carbonyl (oxygenated VOCs with a C = O moiety) photolysis as a dominant oxidant source. Extreme VOC concentrations optimize the ozone production efficiency of NOx. There is considerable potential for global growth in oil and gas extraction from shale. This analysis could help inform strategies to monitor and mitigate air quality impacts and provide broader insight into the response of winter ozone to primary pollutants.

Abstract:
During recent years, elevated ozone (O3) values have been observed repeatedly in the Upper Green River basin (UGRB), Wyoming, during wintertime. This paper presents an analysis of high ozone days in late winter 2011 (1 h average up to 166 ppbv – parts per billion by volume). Intensive operational periods (IOPs) of ambient monitoring were performed, which included comprehensive surface and boundary layer measurements. On IOP days, maximum O3 values are restricted to a very shallow surface layer. Low wind speeds in combination with low mixing layer heights (~ 50 m above ground level around noontime) are essential for accumulation of pollutants within the UGRB. Air masses contain substantial amounts of reactive nitrogen (NOx) and non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHC) emitted from fossil fuel exploration activities in the Pinedale Anticline. On IOP days particularly in the morning hours, reactive nitrogen (up to 69%), aromatics and alkanes (~ 10–15%; mostly ethane and propane) are major contributors to the hydroxyl (OH) reactivity. Measurements at the Boulder monitoring site during these time periods under SW wind flow conditions show the lowest NMHC / NOx ratios (~ 50), reflecting a relatively low reactive NMHC mixture, and a change from a NOx-limited regime towards a NMHC-limited regime as indicated by photochemical indicators, e.g., O3 /NOy, O3 /NOz, and O3 / HNO3 and the EOR (extent of reaction). OH production on IOP days is mainly due to nitrous acid (HONO). On a 24 h basis and as determined for a measurement height of 1.80 m above the surface HONO photolysis on IOP days can contribute ~ 83% to OH production on average, followed by alkene ozonolysis (~ 9%). Photolysis by ozone and HCHO photolysis contribute about 4% each to hydroxyl formation. High HONO levels (maximum hourly median on IOP days: 1096 pptv – parts per trillion by volume) are favored by a combination of shallow boundary layer conditions and enhanced photolysis rates due to the high albedo of the snow surface. HONO is most likely formed through (i) abundant nitric acid (HNO3) produced in atmospheric oxidation of NOx, deposited onto the snow surface and undergoing photo-enhanced heterogeneous conversion to HONO (estimated HONO production: 10.2 ± 40% ppbv h−1) and (ii) combustion-related emission of HONO (estimated HONO production: ~ 0.1 ± 30% ppbv h−1). HONO production is confined to the lowermost 10 m of the boundary layer. HONO, serves as the most important precursor for OH, strongly enhanced due to the high albedo of the snow cover (HONO photolysis rate 10.7 ± 30% ppbv h−1). OH radicals will oxidize NMHCs, mostly aromatics (toluene, xylenes) and alkanes (ethane, propane), eventually leading to an increase in ozone.

Abstract:
Winter maximum daily 8-hour average (MDA8) ozone concentrations in the Upper Green River Basin, Wyoming (UGRBWY) and the Uintah Basin, Utah (UBUT) have frequently exceeded 100 ppb in January, February and March, in the past few years. Such levels are well above the U.S. air quality standard of 75 ppb. In these two remote basins in the Rockies, local ozone precursor emissions result from intense oil and gas extraction activities that release methane, volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and nitrogen oxides (NOx) to the atmosphere. These emissions become trapped beneath a stable and shallow (~50–200 m) boundary layer maintained in low wind conditions. Wintertime surface ozone formation conditions are more likely in the UBUT than in the UGRBWY as the topography of the UBUT is an enclosed basin whereas the UGRBWY is open on its southern perimeter thus allowing for more air turnover. With snow-covered ground, high ozone events regularly begin in mid-December and last into early March in the UBUT whereas they usually do not begin in earnest until about a month later in the UGRBWY and may persist until mid-March. Winters without snow cover and the accompanying cold pool meteorological conditions do not experience high ozone events in either basin. For nine years with ozone observations in the UGRBWY (2005–2013) and four in the UBUT (2010–2013), all years with adequate (≥6 inches) and persistent snow cover, experienced days with ozone values ≥75 ppb except in 2012 in the UGRBWY when persistent high wind (>5 m/s) conditions were prevalent. Year to year differences in the occurrences of high ozone episodes appear to be driven primarily by differing meteorological conditions rather than by variations in ozone precursor levels.

Abstract:
The Uintah Basin in northeastern Utah, a region of intense oil and gas extraction, experienced ozone (O3) concentrations above levels harmful to human health for multiple days during the winters of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011. These wintertime O3 pollution episodes occur during cold, stable periods when the ground is snowcovered, and have been linked to emissions from the oil and gas extraction process. The Uintah Basin Winter Ozone Study (UBWOS) was a field intensive in early 2012, whose goal was to address current uncertainties in the chemical and physical processes that drive wintertime O3 production in regions of oil and gas development. Although elevated O3 concentrations were not observed during the winter of 2011-2012, the comprehensive set of observations tests of our understanding of O3 photochemistry in this unusual emissions environment. A box model, constrained to the observations and using the explicit Master Chemical Mechanism (MCM) V3.2 chemistry scheme, has been used to investigate the sensitivities of O3 production during UBWOS 2012. Simulations identify the O3 production photochemistry to be highly radical limited. Production of OH from O3 photolysis (through reaction of O(1D) with water vapor) contributed only 170 pptv day-1, 8% of the total primary radical source on average. Other radical sources, including the photolysis of formaldehyde (HCHO, 52%), nitrous acid (HONO, 26%), and nitryl chloride (ClNO2, 13%) were larger. O3 production was also found to be highly sensitive to aromatic volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrations, due to radical amplification reactions in the oxidation scheme of these species. Radical production was shown to be small in comparison to the emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx), such that NOx acted as the primary radical sink. Consequently, the system was highly VOC sensitive, despite the much larger mixing ratio of total non-methane hydrocarbons (230 ppbv (2080 ppbC), 6 week average) relative to NOx (5.6 ppbv average). However, the importance of radical sources which are themselves derived from NOx emissions and chemistry, such as ClNO2 and HONO, make the response of the system to changes in NOx emissions uncertain. These box model simulations provide useful insight into the chemistry controlling winter O3 production in regions of oil and gas extraction.

Abstract:
Increased drilling in urban areas overlying shale formations and its potential impact on human health through decreased air quality make it important to estimate the contribution of oil and gas activities to photochemical smog. Flares and compressor engines used in natural gas operations, for example, are large sources not only of NOx but also offormaldehyde, a hazardous air pollutant and powerful ozone precursor We used a neighborhood scale (200 m horizontal resolution) three-dimensional (3D) air dispersion model with an appropriate chemical mechanism to simulate ozone formation in the vicinity ofa hypothetical natural gas processing facility, based on accepted estimates of both regular and nonroutine emissions. The model predicts that, under average midday conditions in June, regular emissions mostly associated with compressor engines may increase ambient ozone in the Barnett Shale by more than 3 ppb beginning at about 2 km downwind of the facility, assuming there are no other major sources of ozone precursors. Flare volumes of 100,000 cubic meters per hour ofnatural gas over a period of 2 hr can also add over 3 ppb to peak 1-hr ozone somewhatfurther (>8 km) downwind, once dilution overcomes ozone titration and inhibition by large flare emissions of NOx. The additional peak ozone from the hypothetical flare can briefly exceed 10 ppb about 16 km downwind. The enhancements of ambient ozone predicted by the model are significant, given that ozone control strategy widths are of the order of a few parts per billion. Degrading the horizontal resolution of the model to 1 km spuriously enhances the simulated ozone increases by reducing the effectiveness of ozone inhibition and titration due to artificial plume dilution.

Abstract:
The Haynesville Shale is a subsurface rock formation located beneath the Northeast Texas/Northwest Louisiana border near Shreveport. This formation is estimated to contain very large recoverable reserves of natural gas, and during the two years since the drilling of the first highly productive wells in 2008, has been the focus of intensive leasing and exploration activity. The development of natural gas resources within the Haynesville Shale is likely to be economically important but may also generate significant emissions of ozone precursors. Using well production data from state regulatory agencies and a review of the available literature, projections of future year Haynesville Shale natural gas production were derived for 2009−2020 for three scenarios corresponding to limited, moderate, and aggressive development. These production estimates were then used to develop an emission inventory for each of the three scenarios. Photochemical modeling of the year 2012 showed increases in 2012 8-h ozone design values of up to 5 ppb within Northeast Texas and Northwest Louisiana resulting from development in the Haynesville Shale. Ozone increases due to Haynesville Shale emissions can affect regions outside Northeast Texas and Northwest Louisiana due to ozone transport. This study evaluates only near-term ozone impacts, but the emission inventory projections indicate that Haynesville emissions may be expected to increase through 2020.

Abstract:
The Intermountain West is currently experiencing increased growth in oil and gas production, which has the potential to affect the visibility and air quality of various Class I areas in the region. The following work presents an analysis of these impacts using the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions (CAMx). CAMx is a state-of-the-science, "one-atmosphere" Eulerian photochemical dispersion model that has been widely used in the assessment of gaseous and particulate air pollution (ozone, fine [PM2.5], and coarse [PM10] particulate matter). Meteorology and emissions inventories developed by the Western Regional Air Partnership Regional Modeling Center for regional haze analysis and planning are used to establish an ozone baseline simulation for the year 2002. The predicted range of values for ozone in the national parks and other Class I areas in the western United States is then evaluated with available observations from the Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNET). This evaluation demonstrates the model's suitability for subsequent planning, sensitivity, and emissions control strategy modeling. Once the ozone baseline simulation has been established, an analysis of the model results is performed to investigate the regional impacts of oil and gas development on the ozone concentrations that affect the air quality of Class I areas. Results indicate that the maximum 8-hr ozone enhancement from oil and gas (9.6 parts per billion [ppb]) could affect southwestern Colorado and northwestern New Mexico. Class I areas in this region that are likely to be impacted by increased ozone include Mesa Verde National Park and Weminuche Wilderness Area in Colorado and San Pedro Parks Wilderness Area, Bandelier Wilderness Area, Pecos Wilderness Area, and Wheeler Peak Wilderness Area in New Mexico.