Repository for Oil and Gas Energy Research (ROGER)

Abstract:
The amount of methane emissions released by the natural gas (NG) industry is a critical and uncertain value for various industry and policy decisions, such as for determining the climate implications of using NG over coal. Previous studies have estimated fugitive emissions rates (FER) ? the fraction of produced NG (mainly methane and ethane) escaped to the atmosphere ? between 1-9%. Most of these studies rely on few and outdated measurements, and some may represent only temporal/regional NG industry snapshots. This study estimates NG industry representative FER using global atmospheric methane and ethane measurements over three decades, and literature ranges of (i) tracer gas atmospheric lifetimes, (ii) non-NG source estimates, and (iii) fossil fuel fugitive gas hydrocarbon compositions. The modeling suggests an upper bound global average FER of 5% during 2006?2011, and a most likely FER of 2-4% since 2000, trending downward. These results do not account for highly uncertain natural hydrocarbon seepage, which could lower the FER. Further emissions reductions by the NG industry may be needed to ensure climate benefits over coal during the next few decades.

Abstract:
Petroleum and dairy operations are prominent sources of gas-phase organic compounds in California's San Joaquin Valley. It is essential to understand the emissions and air quality impacts of these relatively understudied sources, especially for oil/gas operations in light of increasing US production. Ground site measurements in Bakersfield and regional aircraft measurements of reactive gas-phase organic compounds and methane were part of the CalNex (California Research at the Nexus of Air Quality and Climate Change) project to determine the sources contributing to regional gas-phase organic carbon emissions. Using a combination of near-source and downwind data, we assess the composition and magnitude of emissions, and provide average source profiles. To examine the spatial distribution of emissions in the San Joaquin Valley, we developed a statistical modeling method using ground-based data and the FLEXPART-WRF transport and meteorological model. We present evidence for large sources of paraffinic hydrocarbons from petroleum operations and oxygenated compounds from dairy (and other cattle) operations. In addition to the small straight-chain alkanes typically associated with petroleum operations, we observed a wide range of branched and cyclic alkanes, most of which have limited previous in situ measurements or characterization in petroleum operation emissions. Observed dairy emissions were dominated by ethanol, methanol, acetic acid, and methane. Dairy operations were responsible for the vast majority of methane emissions in the San Joaquin Valley; observations of methane were well correlated with non-vehicular ethanol, and multiple assessments of the spatial distribution of emissions in the San Joaquin Valley highlight the dominance of dairy operations for methane emissions. The petroleum operations source profile was developed using the composition of non-methane hydrocarbons in unrefined natural gas associated with crude oil. The observed source profile is consistent with fugitive emissions of condensate during storage or processing of associated gas following extraction and methane separation. Aircraft observations of concentration hotspots near oil wells and dairies are consistent with the statistical source footprint determined via our FLEXPART-WRF-based modeling method and ground-based data. We quantitatively compared our observations at Bakersfield to the California Air Resources Board emission inventory and find consistency for relative emission rates of reactive organic gases between the aforementioned sources and motor vehicles in the region. We estimate that petroleum and dairy operations each comprised 22% of anthropogenic non-methane organic carbon at Bakersfield and were each responsible for 8–13% of potential precursors to ozone. Yet, their direct impacts as potential secondary organic aerosol (SOA) precursors were estimated to be minor for the source profiles observed in the San Joaquin Valley.

Abstract:
Emissions of methane (CH4) from oil and natural (O&G) gas operations in the most densely drilled area of the Denver-Julesburg (D-J) Basin in Weld County located in northeastern Colorado are estimated for two days in May 2012 using aircraft-based CH4 observations and planetary boundary layer height and ground-based wind profile measurements. Total top-down CH4 emission estimates are 25.8 ± 8.4 and 26.2 ± 10.7 tonnes CH4/hr for the May 29 and May 31 flights, respectively. Using inventory data, we estimate the total emissions of CH4 from non-O&G gas related sources at 7.1 ± 1.7 and 6.3 ± 1.0 tonnes CH4/hr for these two days. The difference in emissions is attributed to O&G sources in the study region and their total emission is on average 19.3 ± 6.9 tonnes/hr, close to three times higher than an hourly emission estimate based on EPA's Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program data for 2012. We derive top-down emissions estimates for propane, n-butane, i-pentane, n-pentane, and benzene from our total top-down CH4 emission estimate and the relative hydrocarbon abundances in aircraft-based discrete air samples. Emissions for these five non-methane hydrocarbons alone total 25.4 ± 8.2 tonnes/hr. Assuming these emissions are solely originating from O&G related activities in the study region, our results show that the state inventory for total VOC emitted by O&G activities is at least a factor of two too low for May 2012. Our top-down emission estimate of benzene emissions from O&G operations is 173 ± 64 kg/hr, or seven times larger than in the state inventory.

Abstract:
We present a new, spatially resolved inventory of methane (CH4) emissions based on US-EPA emission factors and publically available activity data for 2010 California petroleum production and natural gas production, processing, transmission, and distribution. Compared to official California bottom-up inventories, our initial estimates are 3 to 7 times higher for the petroleum and natural gas production sectors but similar for the natural gas transmission and distribution sectors. Evidence from published ?top-down? atmospheric measurement campaigns within southern California supports our initial emission estimates from production and processing, but indicates emission estimates from transmission and distribution are low by a factor of approximately 2. To provide emission maps with more accurate total emissions we scale the spatially resolved inventory by sector-specific results from a Southern California aircraft measurement campaign to all of California. Assuming uncertainties are determined by the uncertainties estimated in the top-down study, our estimated state total CH4 emissions are 541±144 Gg yr-1, (as compared with 210.7 Gg yr-1 in California?s current official inventory), where the majority of our reported uncertainty is derived from transmission and distribution. We note uncertainties relative to the mean for a given region are likely larger than that for the State total, emphasizing the need for additional measurements in under sampled regions.

Abstract:
Advances in technologies for extracting oil and gas from shale formations have dramatically increased U.S. production of natural gas. As production expands domestically and abroad, natural gas prices will be lower than without shale gas. Lower prices have two main effects: increasing overall energy consumption, and encouraging substitution away from sources such as coal, nuclear, renewables, and electricity. We examine the evidence and analyze modeling projections to understand how these two dynamics affect greenhouse gas emissions. Most evidence indicates that natural gas as a substitute for coal in electricity production, gasoline in transport, and electricity in buildings decreases greenhouse gases, although as an electricity substitute this depends on the electricity mix displaced. Modeling suggests that absent substantial policy changes, increased natural gas production slightly increases overall energy use, more substantially encourages fuel-switching, and that the combined effect slightly alters economy-wide GHG emissions; whether the net effect is a slight decrease or increase depends on modeling assumptions including upstream methane emissions. Our main conclusions are that natural gas can help reduce GHG emissions, but in the absence of targeted climate policy measures, it will not substantially change the course of global GHG concentrations. Abundant natural gas can, however, help reduce the costs of achieving GHG reduction goals.

Abstract:
The identification and quantification of methane emissions from natural gas production has become increasingly important owing to the increase in the natural gas component of the energy sector. An instrumented aircraft platform was used to identify large sources of methane and quantify emission rates in southwestern PA in June 2012. A large regional flux, 2.0–14 g CH4 s−1 km−2, was quantified for a ∼2,800-km2 area, which did not differ statistically from a bottom-up inventory, 2.3–4.6 g CH4 s−1 km−2. Large emissions averaging 34 g CH4/s per well were observed from seven well pads determined to be in the drilling phase, 2 to 3 orders of magnitude greater than US Environmental Protection Agency estimates for this operational phase. The emissions from these well pads, representing ∼1% of the total number of wells, account for 4–30% of the observed regional flux. More work is needed to determine all of the sources of methane emissions from natural gas production, to ascertain why these emissions occur and to evaluate their climate and atmospheric chemistry impacts.

Abstract:
Production of natural gas from shale formations is bringing drilling and production operations to regions of the United States that have seen little or no similar activity in the past, which has generated considerable interest in potential environmental impacts. This study focused on the Barnett Shale Fort Worth Basin in Texas, which saw the number of gas-producing wells grow from 726 in 2001 to 15,870 in 2011. This study aimed to measure fence line concentrations of methane and hydrogen sulfide at natural gas production sites (wells, liquid storage tanks, and associated equipment) in the four core counties of the Barnett Shale (Denton, Johnson, Tarrant, and Wise). A mobile measurement survey was conducted in the vicinity of 4788 wells near 401 lease sites, representing 35% of gas production volume, 31% of wells, and 38% of condensate production volume in the four-county core area. Methane and hydrogen sulfide concentrations were measured using a Picarro G2204 cavity ring-down spectrometer (CRDS). Since the research team did not have access to lease site interiors, measurements were made by driving on roads on the exterior of the lease sites. Over 150 hr of data were collected from March to July 2012. During two sets of drive-by measurements, it was found that 66 sites (16.5%) had methane concentrations >3 parts per million (ppm) just beyond the fence line. Thirty-two lease sites (8.0%) had hydrogen sulfide concentrations >4.7 parts per billion (ppb) (odor recognition threshold) just beyond the fence line. Measured concentrations generally did not correlate well with site characteristics (natural gas production volume, number of wells, or condensate production). t tests showed that for two counties, methane concentrations for dry sites were higher than those for wet sites. Follow-up study is recommended to provide more information at sites identified with high levels of methane and hydrogen sulfide. Implications:Information regarding air emissions from shale gas production is important given the recent increase in number of wells in various regions in the United States. Methane, the primary natural gas constituent, is a greenhouse gas; hydrogen sulfide, which can be present in gas condensate, is an odor-causing compound. This study surveyed wells representing one-third of the natural gas production volume in the Texas Barnett Shale and identified the percent of sites that warrant further study due to their fence line methane and hydrogen sulfide concentrations.

Abstract:
Natural gas (NG) is a potential “bridge fuel” during transition to a decarbonized energy system: It emits less carbon dioxide during combustion than other fossil fuels and can be used in many industries. However, because of the high global warming potential of methane (CH4, the major component of NG), climate benefits from NG use depend on system leakage rates. Some recent estimates of leakage have challenged the benefits of switching from coal to NG, a large near-term greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction opportunity (1–3). Also, global atmospheric CH4 concentrations are on the rise, with the causes still poorly understood (4). Methane emissions from U.S. and Canadian natural gas systems appear larger than official estimates. Methane emissions from U.S. and Canadian natural gas systems appear larger than official estimates.

Abstract:
The US Energy Information Administration projects that hydraulic fracturing of shale formations will become a dominant source of domestic natural gas supply over the next several decades, transforming the energy landscape in the United States. However, the environmental impacts associated with fracking for shale gas have made it controversial. This review examines emissions and impacts of air pollutants associated with shale gas production and use. Emissions and impacts of greenhouse gases, photochemically active air pollutants, and toxic air pollutants are described. In addition to the direct atmospheric impacts of expanded natural gas production, indirect effects are also described. Widespread availability of shale gas can drive down natural gas prices, which, in turn, can impact the use patterns for natural gas. Natural gas production and use in electricity generation are used as a case study for examining these indirect consequences of expanded natural gas availability. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering Volume 5 is June 07, 2014. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/catalog/pubdates.aspx for revised estimates.

Abstract:
Pipeline safety in the United States has increased in recent decades, but incidents involving natural gas pipelines still cause an average of 17 fatalities and $133 M in property damage annually. Natural gas leaks are also the largest anthropogenic source of the greenhouse gas methane (CH4) in the U.S. To reduce pipeline leakage and increase consumer safety, we deployed a Picarro G2301 Cavity Ring-Down Spectrometer in a car, mapping 5893 natural gas leaks (2.5 to 88.6 ppm CH4) across 1500 road miles of Washington, DC. The δ13C-isotopic signatures of the methane (?38.2? ± 3.9? s.d.) and ethane (?36.5 ± 1.1 s.d.) and the CH4:C2H6 ratios (25.5 ± 8.9 s.d.) closely matched the pipeline gas (?39.0? and ?36.2? for methane and ethane; 19.0 for CH4/C2H6). Emissions from four street leaks ranged from 9200 to 38?200 L CH4 day?1 each, comparable to natural gas used by 1.7 to 7.0 homes, respectively. At 19 tested locations, 12 potentially explosive (Grade 1) methane concentrations of 50?000 to 500?000 ppm were detected in manholes. Financial incentives and targeted programs among companies, public utility commissions, and scientists to reduce leaks and replace old cast-iron pipes will improve consumer safety and air quality, save money, and lower greenhouse gas emissions.

Abstract:
Methane emissions from liquid unloadings were measured at 107 wells in natural gas production regions throughout the United States. Liquid unloadings clear wells of accumulated liquids to increase production, employing a variety of liquid lifting mechanisms. In this work, wells with and without plunger lifts were sampled. Most wells without plunger lifts unload less than 10 times per year with emissions averaging 21?000?35?000 scf methane (0.4?0.7 Mg) per event (95% confidence limits of 10?000?50?000 scf/event). For wells with plunger lifts, emissions averaged 1000?10?000 scf methane (0.02?0.2 Mg) per event (95% confidence limits of 500?12?000 scf/event). Some wells with plunger lifts are automatically triggered and unload thousands of times per year and these wells account for the majority of the emissions from all wells with liquid unloadings. If the data collected in this work are assumed to be representative of national populations, the data suggest that the central estimate of emissions from unloadings (270 Gg/yr, 95% confidence range of 190?400 Gg) are within a few percent of the emissions estimated in the EPA 2012 Greenhouse Gas National Emission Inventory (released in 2014), with emissions dominated by wells with high frequencies of unloadings.

Abstract:
In April 2011, we published the first peer-reviewed analysis of the greenhouse gas footprint (GHG) of shale gas, concluding that the climate impact of shale gas may be worse than that of other fossil fuels such as coal and oil because of methane emissions. We noted the poor quality of publicly available data to sup- port our analysis and called for further research. Our paper spurred a large increase in research and analysis, including several new studies that have better measured methane emissions from natural gas systems. Here, I review this new research in the context of our 2011 paper and the fifth assessment from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released in 2013. The best data available now indicate that our estimates of methane emission from both shale gas and conventional natural gas were relatively robust. Using these new, best available data and a 20-year time period for comparing the warming potential of methane to carbon dioxide, the conclusion stands that both shale gas and conventional natural gas have a larger GHG than do coal or oil, for any possi- ble use of natural gas and particularly for the primary uses of residential and commercial heating. The 20-year time period is appropriate because of the urgent need to reduce methane emissions over the coming 15–35 years.

Abstract:
The development of the Marcellus Shale gas play in Pennsylvania and the northeastern United States has resulted in significant amounts of water and wastes transported by truck over roadways. This study used geographic information systems (GIS) to quantify truck travel distances via both the preferred routes (minimum distance while also favoring higher-order roads) as well as, where available, the likely actual distances for freshwater and waste transport between pertinent locations (e.g., gas wells, treatment facilities, freshwater sources). Results show that truck travel distances in the Susquehanna River Basin are greater than those used in prior life-cycle assessments of tight shale gas. When compared to likely actual transport distances, if policies were instituted to constrain truck travel to the closest destination and higher-order roads, transport mileage reductions of 40–80% could be realized. Using reasonable assumptions of current practices, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with water and waste hauling were calculated to be 70–157 MT CO2eq${\mathrm{CO}}_2\mathrm{eq}$ per gas well. Furthermore, empty so-called backhaul trips, such as to freshwater withdrawal sites or returning from deep well injection sites, were found to increase emissions by an additional 30%, underscoring the importance of including return trips in the analysis. The results should inform future life-cycle assessments of tight shale gases in managed watersheds and help local and regional governments plan for impacts of transportation on local infrastructure.

Abstract:
This study quantitatively estimates the spatial distribution of anthropogenic methane sources in the United States by combining comprehensive atmospheric methane observations, extensive spatial datasets, and a high-resolution atmospheric transport model. Results show that current inventories from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research underestimate methane emissions nationally by a factor of ∼1.5 and ∼1.7, respectively. Our study indicates that emissions due to ruminants and manure are up to twice the magnitude of existing inventories. In addition, the discrepancy in methane source estimates is particularly pronounced in the south-central United States, where we find total emissions are ∼2.7 times greater than in most inventories and account for 24 ± 3% of national emissions. The spatial patterns of our emission fluxes and observed methane–propane correlations indicate that fossil fuel extraction and refining are major contributors (45 ± 13%) in the south-central United States. This result suggests that regional methane emissions due to fossil fuel extraction and processing could be 4.9 ± 2.6 times larger than in EDGAR, the most comprehensive global methane inventory. These results cast doubt on the US EPA’s recent decision to downscale its estimate of national natural gas emissions by 25–30%. Overall, we conclude that methane emissions associated with both the animal husbandry and fossil fuel industries have larger greenhouse gas impacts than indicated by existing inventories.

Abstract:
Engineering estimates of methane emissions from natural gas production have led to varied projections of national emissions. This work reports direct measurements of methane emissions at 190 onshore natural gas sites in the United States (150 production sites, 27 well completion flowbacks, 9 well unloadings, and 4 workovers). For well completion flowbacks, which clear fractured wells of liquid to allow gas production, methane emissions ranged from 0.01 Mg to 17 Mg (mean = 1.7 Mg; 95% confidence bounds of 0.67–3.3 Mg), compared with an average of 81 Mg per event in the 2011 EPA national emission inventory from April 2013. Emission factors for pneumatic pumps and controllers as well as equipment leaks were both comparable to and higher than estimates in the national inventory. Overall, if emission factors from this work for completion flowbacks, equipment leaks, and pneumatic pumps and controllers are assumed to be representative of national populations and are used to estimate national emissions, total annual emissions from these source categories are calculated to be 957 Gg of methane (with sampling and measurement uncertainties estimated at ±200 Gg). The estimate for comparable source categories in the EPA national inventory is ∼1,200 Gg. Additional measurements of unloadings and workovers are needed to produce national emission estimates for these source categories. The 957 Gg in emissions for completion flowbacks, pneumatics, and equipment leaks, coupled with EPA national inventory estimates for other categories, leads to an estimated 2,300 Gg of methane emissions from natural gas production (0.42% of gross gas production).

Abstract:
Hydraulically fractured shale formations are being developed widely for oil and gas production. They could also represent an attractive repository for permanent geologic carbon sequestration. Shales have a low permeability, but they can adsorb an appreciable amount of CO2 on fracture surfaces. Here, a computational method is proposed for estimating the CO2 sequestration capacity of a fractured shale formation and it is applied to the Marcellus shale in the eastern United States. The model is based on historical and projected CH4 production along with published data and models for CH4/CO2 sorption equilibria and kinetics. The results suggest that the Marcellus shale alone could store between 10.4 and 18.4 Gt of CO2 between now and 2030, which represents more than 50% of total U.S. CO2 emissions from stationary sources over the same period. Other shale formations with comparable pressure?temperature conditions, such as Haynesville and Barnett, could provide significant additional storage capacity. The mass transfer kinetic results indicate that injection of CO2 would proceed several times faster than production of CH4. Additional considerations not included in this model could either reinforce (e.g., leveraging of existing extraction and monitoring infrastructure) or undermine (e.g., leakage or seismicity potential) this approach, but the sequestration capacity estimated here supports continued exploration into this pathway for producing carbon neutral energy.

Abstract:
Methane (CH4) emissions from natural gas production are not well quantified and have the potential to offset the climate benefits of natural gas over other fossil fuels. We use atmospheric measurements in a mass balance approach to estimate CH4 emissions of 55 ± 15 × 103 kg h−1 from a natural gas and oil production field in Uintah County, Utah, on 1 day: 3 February 2012. This emission rate corresponds to 6.2%–11.7% (1σ) of average hourly natural gas production in Uintah County in the month of February. This study demonstrates the mass balance technique as a valuable tool for estimating emissions from oil and gas production regions and illustrates the need for further atmospheric measurements to determine the representativeness of our single-day estimate and to better assess inventories of CH4 emissions.

Abstract:
Existing transportation fuel cycle emissions models are either general and calculate nonspecific values of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from crude oil production, or are not available for public review and auditing. We have developed the Oil Production Greenhouse Gas Emissions Estimator (OPGEE) to provide open-source, transparent, rigorous GHG assessments for use in scientific assessment, regulatory processes, and analysis of GHG mitigation options by producers. OPGEE uses petroleum engineering fundamentals to model emissions from oil and gas production operations. We introduce OPGEE and explain the methods and assumptions used in its construction. We run OPGEE on a small set of fictional oil fields and explore model sensitivity to selected input parameters. Results show that upstream emissions from petroleum production operations can vary from 3 gCO2/MJ to over 30 gCO2/MJ using realistic ranges of input parameters. Significant drivers of emissions variation are steam injection rates, water handling requirements, and rates of flaring of associated gas.

Abstract:
Methane (CH4), carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), and C2–C5 alkanes were measured throughout the Los Angeles (L.A.) basin in May and June 2010. We use these data to show that the emission ratios of CH4/CO and CH4/CO2 in the L.A. basin are larger than expected from population-apportioned bottom-up state inventories, consistent with previously published work. We use experimentally determined CH4/CO and CH4/CO2 emission ratios in combination with annual State of California CO and CO2 inventories to derive a yearly emission rate of CH4 to the L.A. basin. We further use the airborne measurements to directly derive CH4 emission rates from dairy operations in Chino, and from the two largest landfills in the L.A. basin, and show these sources are accurately represented in the California Air Resources Board greenhouse gas inventory for CH4. We then use measurements of C2–C5 alkanes to quantify the relative contribution of other CH4 sources in the L.A. basin, with results differing from those of previous studies. The atmospheric data are consistent with the majority of CH4 emissions in the region coming from fugitive losses from natural gas in pipelines and urban distribution systems and/or geologic seeps, as well as landfills and dairies. The local oil and gas industry also provides a significant source of CH4 in the area. The addition of CH4 emissions from natural gas pipelines and urban distribution systems and/or geologic seeps and from the local oil and gas industry is sufficient to account for the differences between the top-down and bottom-up CH4 inventories identified in previously published work.

Abstract:
The Marcellus Shale (MS) represents a large potential source of energy in the form of tightly trapped natural gas (NG). Producing this NG requires the use of energy and water, and has varying environmental impacts, including greenhouse gases. One well-established tool for quantifying these impacts is life-cycle assessment (LCA). This study collected information from current operating companies to perform a process LCA of production for MS NG in three areas--greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, energy consumption, and water consumption--under both present (2011-2012) and past (2007-2010) operating practices. Energy return on investment (EROI) was also calculated. Information was collected from current well development operators and public databases, and combined with process LCA data to calculate per-well and per-MJ delivered impacts, and with literature data on combustion for calculation of impacts on a per-kWh basis during electricity generation. Results show that GHG emissions through combustion are similar to conventional natural gas, with an EROI of 12:1 (90% confidence interval of 4:1-13:1), lower than conventional fossil fuels but higher than unconventional oil sources.

Abstract:
We present results of a life cycle assessment (LCA) of Marcellus shale gas used for power generation. The analysis employs the most extensive data set of any LCA of shale gas to date, encompassing data from actual gas production and power generation operations. Results indicate that a typical Marcellus gas life cycle yields 466 kg CO2eq/MWh (80% confidence interval: 450-567 kg CO2eq/MWh) of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and 224 gal/MWh (80% CI: 185-305 gal/MWh) of freshwater consumption. Operations associated with hydraulic fracturing constitute only 1.2% of the life cycle GHG emissions, and 6.2% of the life cycle freshwater consumption. These results are influenced most strongly by the estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) of the well and the power plant efficiency: increase in either quantity will reduce both life cycle freshwater consumption and GHG emissions relative to power generated at the plant. We conclude by comparing the life cycle impacts of Marcellus gas and U.S. coal: The carbon footprint of Marcellus gas is 53% (80% CI: 44-61%) lower than coal, and its freshwater consumption is about 50% of coal. We conclude that substantial GHG reductions and freshwater savings may result from the replacement of coal-fired power generation with gas-fired power generation.

Abstract:
Natural gas is the largest source of anthropogenic emissions of methane (CH4) in the United States. To assess pipeline emissions across a major city, we mapped CH4 leaks across all 785 road miles in the city of Boston using a cavity-ring-down mobile CH4 analyzer. We identified 3356 CH4 leaks with concentrations exceeding up to 15 times the global background level. Separately, we measured δ13CH4 isotopic signatures from a subset of these leaks. The δ13CH4 signatures (mean = −42.8‰ ± 1.3‰ s.e.; n = 32) strongly indicate a fossil fuel source rather than a biogenic source for most of the leaks; natural gas sampled across the city had average δ13CH4 values of −36.8‰ (±0.7‰ s.e., n = 10), whereas CH4 collected from landfill sites, wetlands, and sewer systems had δ13CH4 signatures ∼20‰ lighter (μ = −57.8‰, ±1.6‰ s.e., n = 8). Repairing leaky natural gas distribution systems will reduce greenhouse gas emissions, increase consumer health and safety, and save money.

Abstract:
Estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from shale gas production and use are controversial. Here we assess the level of GHG emissions from shale gas well hydraulic fracturing operations in the United States during 2010. Data from each of the approximately 4000 horizontal shale gas wells brought online that year are used to show that about 900 Gg CH4 of potential fugitive emissions were generated by these operations, or 228 Mg CH4 per well—a figure inappropriately used in analyses of the GHG impact of shale gas. In fact, along with simply venting gas produced during the completion of shale gas wells, two additional techniques are widely used to handle these potential emissions: gas flaring and reduced emission ‘green’ completions. The use of flaring and reduced emission completions reduce the levels of actual fugitive emissions from shale well completion operations to about 216 Gg CH4, or 50 Mg CH4 per well, a release substantially lower than several widely quoted estimates. Although fugitive emissions from the overall natural gas sector are a proper concern, it is incorrect to suggest that shale gas-related hydraulic fracturing has substantially altered the overall GHG intensity of natural gas production.

Abstract:
We use historical and new atmospheric trace gas observations to refine the estimated source of methane (CH4) emitted into California?s South Coast Air Basin (the larger Los Angeles metropolitan region). Referenced to the California Air Resources Board (CARB) CO emissions inventory, total CH4 emissions are 0.44 ± 0.15 Tg each year. To investigate the possible contribution of fossil fuel emissions, we use ambient air observations of methane (CH4), ethane (C2H6), and carbon monoxide (CO), together with measured C2H6 to CH4 enhancement ratios in the Los Angeles natural gas supply. The observed atmospheric C2H6 to CH4 ratio during the ARCTAS (2008) and CalNex (2010) aircraft campaigns is similar to the ratio of these gases in the natural gas supplied to the basin during both these campaigns. Thus, at the upper limit (assuming that the only major source of atmospheric C2H6 is fugitive emissions from the natural gas infrastructure) these data are consistent with the attribution of most (0.39 ± 0.15 Tg yr?1) of the excess CH4 in the basin to uncombusted losses from the natural gas system (approximately 2.5?6% of natural gas delivered to basin customers). However, there are other sources of C2H6 in the region. In particular, emissions of C2H6 (and CH4) from natural gas seeps as well as those associated with petroleum production, both of which are poorly known, will reduce the inferred contribution of the natural gas infrastructure to the total CH4 emissions, potentially significantly. This study highlights both the value and challenges associated with the use of ethane as a tracer for fugitive emissions from the natural gas production and distribution system.

Abstract:
In April 2011, we published the first comprehensive analysis of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from shale gas obtained by hydraulic fracturing, with a focus on methane emissions. Our analysis was challenged by Cathles et al. (2012). Here, we respond to those criticisms. We stand by our approach and findings. The latest EPA estimate for methane emissions from shale gas falls within the range of our estimates but not those of Cathles et al. which are substantially lower. Cathles et al. believe the focus should be just on electricity generation, and the global warming potential of methane should be considered only on a 100-year time scale. Our analysis covered both electricity (30% of US usage) and heat generation (the largest usage), and we evaluated both 20- and 100-year integrated time frames for methane. Both time frames are important, but the decadal scale is critical, given the urgent need to avoid climate-system tipping points. Using all available information and the latest climate science, we conclude that for most uses, the GHG footprint of shale gas is greater than that of other fossil fuels on time scales of up to 100 years. When used to generate electricity, the shale-gas footprint is still significantly greater than that of coal at decadal time scales but is less at the century scale. We reiterate our conclusion from our April 2011 paper that shale gas is not a suitable bridge fuel for the 21st Century.

Abstract:
Natural gas is widely considered to be an environmentally cleaner fuel than coal because it does not produce detrimental by-products such as sulfur, mercury, ash and particulates and because it provides twice the energy per unit of weight with half the carbon footprint during combustion. These points are not in dispute. However, in their recent publication in Climatic Change Letters, Howarth et al. (2011) report that their life-cycle evaluation of shale gas drilling suggests that shale gas has a larger GHG footprint than coal and that this larger footprint “undercuts the logic of its use as a bridging fuel over the coming decades”. We argue here that their analysis is seriously flawed in that they significantly overestimate the fugitive emissions associated with unconventional gas extraction, undervalue the contribution of “green technologies” to reducing those emissions to a level approaching that of conventional gas, base their comparison between gas and coal on heat rather than electricity generation (almost the sole use of coal), and assume a time interval over which to compute the relative climate impact of gas compared to coal that does not capture the contrast between the long residence time of CO2 and the short residence time of methane in the atmosphere. High leakage rates, a short methane GWP, and comparison in terms of heat content are the inappropriate bases upon which Howarth et al. ground their claim that gas could be twice as bad as coal in its greenhouse impact. Using more reasonable leakage rates and bases of comparison, shale gas has a GHG footprint that is half and perhaps a third that of coal.

Abstract:
Natural gas is widely considered to be the crucial “bridging fuel” in the transition to the low-carbon energy systems necessary to mitigate climate change. This paper develops a case study of the shale gas industry in British Columbia (BC), Canada to evaluate this assumption. We find that the transition fuel argument for gas development in BC is unsubstantiated by the best available evidence. Emissions factors for shale gas and LNG remain poorly characterized and contested in the academic literature, and context-specific factors have significant impacts on the lifecycle emissions of shale gas but have not been evaluated. Moreover, while the province has attempted to frame natural gas development within its ambitious climate change policy, this framing misrepresents substantive policy on gas production. The “transition fuel” and “climate solution” labels applied to development by the BC provincial government risk legitimizing carbon-intensive gas development. We argue that policy makers in BC and beyond should abandon the “transition fuel” characterization of natural gas. Instead, decision making about natural gas development should proceed through transparent engagement with the best available evidence to ensure that natural gas lives up to its best potential in supporting a transition to a low-carbon energy system.

Abstract:
The global warming impact of substituting natural gas for coal and oil is currently in debate. We address this question here by comparing the reduction of greenhouse warming that would result from substituting gas for coal and some oil to the reduction which could be achieved by instead substituting zero carbon energy sources. We show that substitution of natural gas reduces global warming by 40% of that which could be attained by the substitution of zero carbon energy sources. At methane leakage rates that are $1% of produc- tion, which is similar to today’s probable leakage rate of $1.5% of production, the 40% benefit is realized as gas substitution occurs. For short transitions the leakage rate must be more than 10 to 15% of production for gas substitution not to reduce warming, and for longer transitions the leakage must be much greater. But even if the leakage was so high that the substitution was not of immediate benefit, the 40%-of-zero-carbon benefit would be realized shortly after methane emissions ceased because methane is removed quickly from the atmosphere whereas CO2 is not. The benefits of substitution are unaffected by heat exchange to the ocean. CO2 emissions are the key to anthropogenic climate change, and substituting gas reduces them by 40% of that possible by conversion to zero carbon energy sources. Gas substitution also reduces the rate at which zero carbon energy sources must eventually be introduced.

Abstract:
The recent increase in the production of natural gas from shale deposits has significantly changed energy outlooks in both the US and world. Shale gas may have important climate benefits if it displaces more carbon-intensive oil or coal, but recent attention has discussed the potential for upstream methane emissions to counteract this reduced combustion greenhouse gas emissions. We examine six recent studies to produce a Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis of the carbon footprint of both shale and conventional natural gas production. The results show that the most likely upstream carbon footprints of these types of natural gas production are largely similar, with overlapping 95% uncertainty ranges of 11.0?21.0 g CO2e/MJLHV for shale gas and 12.4?19.5 g CO2e/MJLHV for conventional gas. However, because this upstream footprint represents less than 25% of the total carbon footprint of gas, the efficiency of producing heat, electricity, transportation services, or other function is of equal or greater importance when identifying emission reduction opportunities. Better data are needed to reduce the uncertainty in natural gas?s carbon footprint, but understanding system-level climate impacts of shale gas, through shifts in national and global energy markets, may be more important and requires more detailed energy and economic systems assessments.

Abstract:
Natural gas is seen by many as the future of American energy: a fuel that can provide energy independence and reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the process. However, there has also been confusion about the climate implications of increased use of natural gas for electric power and transportation. We propose and illustrate the use of technology warming potentials as a robust and transparent way to compare the cumulative radiative forcing created by alternative technologies fueled by natural gas and oil or coal by using the best available estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from each fuel cycle (i.e., production, transportation and use). We find that a shift to compressed natural gas vehicles from gasoline or diesel vehicles leads to greater radiative forcing of the climate for 80 or 280 yr, respectively, before beginning to produce benefits. Compressed natural gas vehicles could produce climate benefits on all time frames if the well-to-wheels CH4 leakage were capped at a level 45–70% below current estimates. By contrast, using natural gas instead of coal for electric power plants can reduce radiative forcing immediately, and reducing CH4 losses from the production and transportation of natural gas would produce even greater benefits. There is a need for the natural gas industry and science community to help obtain better emissions data and for increased efforts to reduce methane leakage in order to minimize the climate footprint of natural gas.

Abstract:
Carbon capture and geological sequestration is the only available technology that both allows continued use of fossil fuels in the power sector and reduces significantly the associated CO2 emissions. Geological sequestration requires a deep permeable geological formation into which captured CO2 can be injected, and an overlying impermeable formation, called a caprock, that keeps the buoyant CO2 within the injection formation. Shale formations typically have very low permeability and are considered to be good caprock formations. Production of natural gas from shale and other tight formations involves fracturing the shale with the explicit objective to greatly increase the permeability of the shale. As such, shale gas production is in direct conflict with the use of shale formations as a caprock barrier to CO2 migration. We have examined the locations in the United States where deep saline aquifers, suitable for CO2 sequestration, exist, as well as the locations of gas production from shale and other tight formations. While estimated sequestration capacity for CO2 sequestration in deep saline aquifers is large, up to 80% of that capacity has areal overlap with potential shale-gas production regions and, therefore, could be adversely affected by shale and tight gas production. Analysis of stationary sources of CO2 shows a similar effect: about two-thirds of the total emissions from these sources are located within 20 miles of a deep saline aquifer, but shale and tight gas production could affect up to 85% of these sources. These analyses indicate that colocation of deep saline aquifers with shale and tight gas production could significantly affect the sequestration capacity for CCS operations. This suggests that a more comprehensive management strategy for subsurface resource utilization should be developed.

Abstract:
CO2 emissions from the US power sector decreased by 8.76% in 2009 relative to 2008 contributing to a decrease over this period of 6.59% in overall US emissions of greenhouse gases. An econometric model, tuned to data reported for regional generation of US electricity, is used to diagnose factors responsible for the 2009 decrease. More than half of the reduction is attributed to a shift from generation of power using coal to gas driven by a recent decrease in gas prices in response to the increase in production from shale. An important result of the model is that, when the cost differential for generation using gas rather than coal falls below 2-3 cents/kWh, less efficient coal fired plants are displaced by more efficient natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) generation alternatives. Costs for generation using NGCC decreased by close to 4 cents/kWh in 2009 relative to 2008 ensuring that generation of electricity using gas was competitive with coal in 2009 in contrast to the situation in 2008 when gas prices were much higher. A modest price on carbon could contribute to additional switching from coal to gas with further savings in CO2 emissions.

Abstract:
The multispecies analysis of daily air samples collected at the NOAA Boulder Atmospheric Observatory (BAO) in Weld County in northeastern Colorado since 2007 shows highly correlated alkane enhancements caused by a regionally distributed mix of sources in the Denver-Julesburg Basin. To further characterize the emissions of methane and non-methane hydrocarbons (propane, n-butane, i-pentane, n-pentane and benzene) around BAO, a pilot study involving automobile-based surveys was carried out during the summer of 2008. A mix of venting emissions (leaks) of raw natural gas and flashing emissions from condensate storage tanks can explain the alkane ratios we observe in air masses impacted by oil and gas operations in northeastern Colorado. Using the WRAP Phase III inventory of total volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions from oil and gas exploration, production and processing, together with flashing and venting emission speciation profiles provided by State agencies or the oil and gas industry, we derive a range of bottom-up speciated emissions for Weld County in 2008. We use the observed ambient molar ratios and flashing and venting emissions data to calculate top-down scenarios for the amount of natural gas leaked to the atmosphere and the associated methane and non-methane emissions. Our analysis suggests that the emissions of the species we measured are most likely underestimated in current inventories and that the uncertainties attached to these estimates can be as high as a factor of two.

Abstract:
A transition from the global system of coal-based electricity generation to low-greenhouse-gas-emission energy technologies is required to mitigate climate change in the long term. The use of current infrastructure to build this new low-emission system necessitates additional emissions of greenhouse gases, and the coal-based infrastructure will continue to emit substantial amounts of greenhouse gases as it is phased out. Furthermore, ocean thermal inertia delays the climate benefits of emissions reductions. By constructing a quantitative model of energy system transitions that includes life-cycle emissions and the central physics of greenhouse warming, we estimate the global warming expected to occur as a result of build-outs of new energy technologies ranging from 100 GW e to 10 TW e in size and 1–100 yr in duration. We show that rapid deployment of low-emission energy systems can do little to diminish the climate impacts in the first half of this century. Conservation, wind, solar, nuclear power, and possibly carbon capture and storage appear to be able to achieve substantial climate benefits in the second half of this century; however, natural gas cannot.

Abstract:
The technologies and practices that have enabled the recent boom in shale gas production have also brought attention to the environmental impacts of its use. It has been debated whether the fugitive methane emissions during natural gas production and transmission outweigh the lower carbon dioxide emissions during combustion when compared to coal and petroleum. Using the current state of knowledge of methane emissions from shale gas, conventional natural gas, coal, and petroleum, we estimated up-to-date life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, we developed distribution functions for key parameters in each pathway to examine uncertainty and identify data gaps such as methane emissions from shale gas well completions and conventional natural gas liquid unloadings that need to be further addressed. Our base case results show that shale gas life-cycle emissions are 6% lower than conventional natural gas, 23% lower than gasoline, and 33% lower than coal. However, the range in values for shale and conventional gas overlap, so there is a statistical uncertainty whether shale gas emissions are indeed lower than conventional gas. Moreover, this life-cycle analysis, among other work in this area, provides insight on critical stages that the natural gas industry and government agencies can work together on to reduce the greenhouse gas footprint of natural gas.

Abstract:
Shale gas is a new energy resource that has shifted the dominant paradigm on U.S. hydrocarbon resources. Some have argued that shale gas will play an important role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions by displacing coal used for electricity, serving as a moderate-carbon "bridge fuel." Others have questioned whether methane emissions from shale gas extraction lead to higher greenhouse gas emissions overall. I argue that the main impact of shale gas on climate change is neither the reduced emissions from fuel substitution nor the greenhouse gas footprint of natural gas itself, but rather the competition between abundant, low-cost gas and low-carbon technologies, including renewables and carbon capture and storage. This might be remedied if the gas industry joins forces with environmental groups, providing a counterbalance to the coal lobby, and ultimately eliminating the conventional use of coal in the United States.

Abstract:
, Recent reports show growing reserves of unconventional gas are available and that there is an appetite from policy makers, industry, and others to better understand the GHG impact of exploiting reserves such as shale gas. There is little publicly available data comparing unconventional and conventional gas production. Existing studies rely on national inventories, but it is not generally possible to separate emissions from unconventional and conventional sources within these totals. Even if unconventional and conventional sites had been listed separately, it would not be possible to eliminate site-specific factors to compare gas production methods on an equal footing. To address this difficulty, the emissions of gas production have instead been modeled. In this way, parameters common to both methods of production can be held constant, while allowing those parameters which differentiate unconventional gas and conventional gas production to vary. The results are placed into the context of power generation, to give a ″well-to-wire″ (WtW) intensity. It was estimated that shale gas typically has a WtW emissions intensity about 1.8–2.4% higher than conventional gas, arising mainly from higher methane releases in well completion. Even using extreme assumptions, it was found that WtW emissions from shale gas need be no more than 15% higher than conventional gas if flaring or recovery measures are used. In all cases considered, the WtW emissions of shale gas powergen are significantly lower than those of coal.

Abstract:
New techniques to extract natural gas from unconventional resources have become economically competitive over the past several years, leading to a rapid and largely unanticipated expansion in natural gas production. The US Energy Information Administration projects that unconventional gas will supply nearly half of US gas production by 2035. In addition, by significantly expanding and diversifying the gas supply internationally, the exploitation of new unconventional gas resources has the potential to reshape energy policy at national and international levels—altering geopolitics and energy security, recasting the economics of energy technology investment decisions, and shifting trends in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In anticipation of this expansion, one of the perceived core advantages of unconventional gas—its relatively moderate GHG impact compared to coal—has recently come under scrutiny. In this paper, we compare the GHG footprints of conventional natural gas, unconventional natural gas (i.e. shale gas that has been produced using the process of hydraulic fracturing, or 'fracking'), and coal in a transparent and consistent way, focusing primarily on the electricity generation sector. We show that for electricity generation the GHG impacts of shale gas are 11% higher than those of conventional gas, and only 56% that of coal for standard assumptions.

Abstract:
Shale gas is viewed by many as a global energy game-changer. However, serious concerns exist that shale gas generates more greenhouse gas emissions than does coal. In this work the related published data are reviewed and a reassessment is made. It is shown that the greenhouse gas effect of shale gas is less than that of coal over long term if the higher power generation efficiency of shale gas is taken into account. In short term, the greenhouse gas effect of shale gas can be lowered to the level of that of coal if methane emissions are kept low using existing technologies. Further reducing the greenhouse gas effect of shale gas by storing CO2 in depleted shale gas reservoirs is also discussed, with the conclusion that more CO2 than the equivalent CO2 emitted by the extracted shale gas could be stored in the reservoirs at significantly reduced cost.

Abstract:
Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel combustion may be reduced by using natural gas rather than coal to produce energy. Gas produces approximately half the amount of CO2 per unit of primary energy compared with coal. Here we consider a scenario where a fraction of coal usage is replaced by natural gas (i.e., methane, CH4) over a given time period, and where a percentage of the gas production is assumed to leak into the atmosphere. The additional CH4 from leakage adds to the radiative forcing of the climate system, offsetting the reduction in CO2 forcing that accompanies the transition from coal to gas. We also consider the effects of: methane leakage from coal mining; changes in radiative forcing due to changes in the emissions of sulfur dioxide and carbonaceous aerosols; and differences in the efficiency of electricity production between coal- and gas-fired power generation. On balance, these factors more than offset the reduction in warming due to reduced CO2 emissions. When gas replaces coal there is additional warming out to 2,050 with an assumed leakage rate of 0%, and out to 2,140 if the leakage rate is as high as 10%. The overall effects on global-mean temperature over the 21st century, however, are small.

Abstract:
Increasing concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the United States have spurred interest in alternate low carbon fuel sources, such as natural gas. Life cycle assessment (LCA) methods can be used to estimate potential emissions reductions through the use of such fuels. Some recent policies have used the results of LCAs to encourage the use of low carbon fuels to meet future energy demands in the U.S., without, however, acknowledging and addressing the uncertainty and variability prevalent in LCA. Natural gas is a particularly interesting fuel since it can be used to meet various energy demands, for example, as a transportation fuel or in power generation. Estimating the magnitudes and likelihoods of achieving emissions reductions from competing end-uses of natural gas using LCA offers one way to examine optimal strategies of natural gas resource allocation, given that its availability is likely to be limited in the future. In this study, the uncertainty in life cycle GHG emissions of natural gas (domestic and imported) consumed in the U.S. was estimated using probabilistic modeling methods. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to obtain sample distributions representing life cycle GHG emissions from the use of 1 MJ of domestic natural gas and imported LNG. Life cycle GHG emissions per energy unit of average natural gas consumed in the U.S were found to range between -8 and 9% of the mean value of 66 g CO(2)e/MJ. The probabilities of achieving emissions reductions by using natural gas for transportation and power generation, as a substitute for incumbent fuels such as gasoline, diesel, and coal were estimated. The use of natural gas for power generation instead of coal was found to have the highest and most likely emissions reductions (almost a 100% probability of achieving reductions of 60 g CO(2)e/MJ of natural gas used), while there is a 10-35% probability of the emissions from natural gas being higher than the incumbent if it were used as a transportation fuel. This likelihood of an increase in GHG emissions is indicative of the potential failure of a climate policy targeting reductions in GHG emissions.

Abstract:
This study estimates the life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the production of Marcellus shale natural gas and compares its emissions with national average US natural gas emissions produced in the year 2008, prior to any significant Marcellus shale development. We estimate that the development and completion of a typical Marcellus shale well results in roughly 5500 t of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions or about1.8 g CO 2 e/MJ of gas produced, assuming conservative estimates of the production lifetime of a typical well. This represents an 11% increase in GHG emissions relative to average domestic gas (excluding combustion) and a 3% increase relative to the life cycle emissions when combustion is included. The life cycle GHG emissions of Marcellus shale natural gas are estimated to be63–75 g CO 2 e/MJ of gas produced with an average of 68 g CO 2 e/MJ of gas produced. Marcellus shale natural gas GHG emissions are comparable to those of imported liquefied natural gas. Natural gas from the Marcellus shale has generally lower life cycle GHG emissions than coal for production of electricity in the absence of any effective carbon capture and storage processes, by 20–50% depending upon plant efficiencies and natural gas emissions variability. There is significant uncertainty in our Marcellus shale GHG emission estimates due to eventual production volumes and variability in flaring, construction and transportation.

Abstract:
We evaluate the greenhouse gas footprint of natural gas obtained by high-volume hydraulic fracturing from shale formations, focusing on methane emissions. Natural gas is composed largely of methane, and 3.6% to 7.9% of the methane from shale-gas production escapes to the atmosphere in venting and leaks over the life-time of a well. These methane emissions are at least 30% more than and perhaps more than twice as great as those from conventional gas. The higher emissions from shale gas occur at the time wells are hydraulically fractured—as methane escapes from flow-back return fluids—and during drill out following the fracturing. Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas, with a global warming potential that is far greater than that of carbon dioxide, particularly over the time horizon of the first few decades following emission. Methane contributes substantially to the greenhouse gas footprint of shale gas on shorter time scales, dominating it on a 20-year time horizon. The footprint for shale gas is greater than that for conventional gas or oil when viewed on any time horizon, but particularly so over 20 years. Compared to coal, the footprint of shale gas is at least 20% greater and perhaps more than twice as great on the 20-year horizon and is comparable when compared over 100 years.