Repository for Oil and Gas Energy Research (ROGER)

Abstract:
Extraction of unconventional energy has become a major global industry in the last decade and is driven by changes in technology and increasing demand. One of the key factors for the success of gas extraction is establishing sufficient permeability in otherwise low-porosity and low-permeability formations. Permeability can be established through hydraulic stimulation of deep formations, either through existing fracture networks or by creating new pathways for fluids to flow, and through depressurization of coalbeds by extracting existing subsurface fluids. Geophysical monitoring of hydraulic stimulation and depressurization can be used to determine lateral and vertical constraints on fluid movements in the target lithologies. Such constraints help to optimize production and well placement. In addition, independent verification is critical for social and environmental regulation, to ensure that hydraulic stimulations and depressurization do not interact with overlying aquifers. To date, the primary and most successful geophysical technique has been microseismic, which measures small seismic events associated with rock fractures from arrays of surface and downhole geophones. The microseismic approach has been used widely for many types of unconventional energy-resource development. The magnetotelluric (MT) method is an alternative approach to monitoring hydraulic stimulations and depressurization. In contrast to microseismic, which delineates the locations of rock fractures, MT is sensitive directly to the presence of fluid as measured by the earth's bulk electrical resistivity, which is dependent on permeability. MT is sensitive to the direction of fluid connection, so it might yield important information on how fluids migrate with time. Because subsurface fluids conduct electrical current dependent on the porosity, connectivity, and ionic saturation of the fluid, it follows that the introduction or removal of fluids will change the electrical resistivity of the formation. The physics of the approach is outlined, and the feasibility of the MT method for monitoring unconventional energy-resource development is demonstrated. Two case studies are conducted, one for a shallow (CSG) depressurization and the second for a deep hydraulic stimulation of a shale-gas reservoir.

Abstract:
We analyze the interevent time distribution of hydraulic-fracturing-induced seismicity collected during 18 stages at four different regions. We identify a universal statistical process describing the distribution of hydraulic-fracturing-induced events in time. The distribution of waiting times between subsequently occurring events is given by the exponential probability density function of the homogeneous Poisson process. Our findings suggest that hydraulic-fracturing-induced seismicity is directly triggered by the relaxation of stress and pore pressure perturbation initially created by the injection. Therefore, compared to this relaxation, the stress transfer caused by the occurrence of preceding seismic events is mainly insignificant for the seismogenesis of subsequently occurring events. We develop a statistical model to compute the occurrence probability of hydraulic-fracturing-induced seismicity. This model can be used to assess the seismic hazard associated with hydraulic fracturing operations. No aftershock triggering has to be included in the statistical model.

Abstract:
We review the distribution, timing and probable causes of 8000 onshore UK seismic events between the years 1970-2012. Of 1769 onshore seismic events with local magnitudes (M-L) >= 1.5, we estimate at least similar to 21% of these have an anthropogenic origin, at least similar to 40% were natural and similar to 39% have an undetermined, anthropogenic or natural origin. The majority of the anthropogenic related earthquakes were caused by coal mining and the decline in their numbers from the 1980s to the 2000s was concurrent with a decline in UK coal production. To date, two earthquakes with M-L >= 1.5 have been caused by hydraulic fracturing. We have a high level of confidence that the mean number of anthropogenic related earthquakes (M-L >= 1.5) per year onshore in the UK since 1999 is at least three with an annual range of between zero and eight If we assumed that 50% of the undetermined events had an anthropogenic origin the mean per year increases to twelve. Although there are inherent uncertainties in assigning an anthropogenic versus natural cause for historical earthquakes, these values provide a baseline for the UK, the first of its kind for any nation state, in advance of the presently planned shale gas and oil exploitation. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Abstract:
More than 60 small earthquakes (ML 0.7–3.0) were detected from December 2011 to March 2012 north of Cardston, Alberta, an area with little evidence for previous seismic activity. The timing of these events closely correlates (>99.7% confidence) with hydraulic fracturing completions of the Devonian–Mississippian-age Exshaw Formation at a nearby horizontal well. Unanimous waveform multiplicity within the swarm suggests that the events share a similar origin and source mechanism. This observation is corroborated by the point-like collocation of hypocenters within the crystalline basement during robust, double-difference relocations. Furthermore, the presence of a pre-existing fault is confirmed via formation-top offset mapping and interpreted to be a Late Cretaceous extensional fault. The confirmation of this fault at depth provides a plausible pathway for rapid hydraulic communication from the fracturing interval into the crystalline basement. Consistent with structural interpretations and available stress information, moment tensor inversion of the largest magnitude event (Mw 3.0) indicates reactivation of a basement fault with normal slip. We conclude that the genesis of this earthquake swarm was likely caused by increased pore pressure, within the basement fault, as a result of fracturing stimulation. Online Material:Figure showing frequency–magnitude distribution of earthquakes, and table of the velocity models used in the study.

Abstract:
While scientists are paying increasing attention to the seismicity potentially induced by hydrocarbon exploitation, so far, little is known about the reverse problem, i.e. the impact of active faulting and earthquakes on hydrocarbon reservoirs. The 20 and 29 May 2012 earthquakes in Emilia, northern Italy (Mw 6.1 and 6.0), raised concerns among the public for being possibly human-induced, but also shed light on the possible use of gas wells as a marker of the seismogenic potential of an active fold and thrust belt. We compared the location, depth and production history of 455 gas wells drilled along the Ferrara-Romagna arc, a large hydrocarbon reserve in the southeastern Po Plain (northern Italy), with the location of the inferred surface projection of the causative faults of the 2012 Emilia earthquakes and of two pre-instrumental damaging earthquakes. We found that these earthquake sources fall within a cluster of sterile wells, surrounded by productive wells at a few kilometres' distance. Since the geology of the productive and sterile areas is quite similar, we suggest that past earthquakes caused the loss of all natural gas from the potential reservoirs lying above their causative faults. To validate our hypothesis we performed two different statistical tests (binomial and Monte Carlo) on the relative distribution of productive and sterile wells, with respect to seismogenic faults. Our findings have important practical implications: (1) they may allow major seismogenic sources to be singled out within large active thrust systems; (2) they suggest that reservoirs hosted in smaller anticlines are more likely to be intact; and (3) they also suggest that in order to minimize the hazard of triggering significant earthquakes, all new gas storage facilities should use exploited reservoirs rather than sterile hydrocarbon traps or aquifers.

Abstract:
Enhanced geothermal systems, shale gas, and geological carbon sequestration all require underground fluid injection in high-pressure conditions. Fluid injection creates fractures, induces seismicity, and has the potential to reactivate nearby faults that can generate a large magnitude earthquake. Mechanisms of fluid injection-induced seismicity and fault reactivation should be better understood to be able to mitigate larger events triggered by fluid injection. This study investigates fluid injection, induced seismicity, and triggering of fault rupture using hydromechanical-coupled discrete element models. Results show that a small amount of fluid pressure perturbation can trigger fault ruptures that are critically oriented and stressed. Induced seismicity by rock failure shows in general higher b-values (slope of magnitude-frequency relation) compared to seismicity triggered by the fault fracture slip. Numerical results closely resemble observations from geothermal and shale-gas fields and demonstrate that discrete element modeling has the potential to be applied in the field as a tool for predicting induced seismicity prior to in situ injection.

Abstract:
This study investigated the utility of multistation waveform cross correlation to help discern induced seismicity. Template matching was applied to all Ohio earthquakes cataloged since the arrival of nearby EarthScope TA stations in late 2010. Earthquakes that were within 5km of fluid injection activities in regions that lacked previously documented seismicity were found to be swarmy. Moreover, the larger number of events produced by template matching for these swarmy sequences made it easier to establish more detailed temporal and spatial relationships between the seismicity and fluid injection activities, which is typically required for an earthquake to be considered induced. Study results detected three previously documented induced sequences (Youngstown, Poland Township, and Harrison County) and provided evidence that suggests two additional cases of induced seismicity (Belmont/Guernsey County and Washington County). Evidence for these cases suggested that unusual swarm-like behaviors in regions that lack previously documented seismicity can be used to help distinguish induced seismicity, complementing the traditional identification of an anthropogenic source spatially and temporally correlated with the seismicity. In support of this finding, we identified 17 additional cataloged earthquakes in regions of previously documented seismicity and away from disposal wells or hydraulic fracturing that returned very few template matches. The lack of swarminess helps to indicate that these events are most likely naturally occurring.

Abstract:
We present an overview of the current status of unconventional energy development, particularly of shale gas, and underground CO2 storage as a measure to mitigate greenhouse gas increase in the atmosphere. We review their potential to induce seismicity, which has caused debates among related energy enterprises, engineers, researchers, and environmental and public communities regarding their potential hazards. Studies show that fracking can be a problem in that it consumes abundant water, but the seismicity induced by fracking has not yet been observed to induce many felt earthquakes. However, massive wastewater injection, a part of the unconventional energy development process has caused M5.0+ earthquakes in the past as well as several recent and ongoing cases of induced seismicity. Large-scale CO2 injection as a part of carbon sequestration efforts in the near future has a high risk of inducing large earthquakes. Therefore, injection operations related to both unconventional energy development and carbon sequestration should be optimized and managed to mitigate the likelihood of an induced seismic event.

Abstract:
An unprecedented increase in earthquakes in the U.S. mid-continent began in 2009. Many of these earthquakes have been documented as induced by wastewater injection. We examine the relationship between wastewater injection and U.S. mid-continent seismicity using a newly assembled injection well database for the central and eastern United States. We find that the entire increase in earthquake rate is associated with fluid injection wells. High-rate injection wells (>300,000 barrels per month) are much more likely to be associated with earthquakes than lower-rate wells. At the scale of our study, a well’s cumulative injected volume, monthly wellhead pressure, depth, and proximity to crystalline basement do not strongly correlate with earthquake association. Managing injection rates may be a useful tool to minimize the likelihood of induced earthquakes. Making quakes depends on injection rates Wastewater injection wells induce earthquakes that garner much attention, especially in tectonically inactive regions. Weingarten et al. combined information from public injection-well databases from the eastern and central United States with the best earthquake catalog available over the past 30 years. The rate of fluid injection into a well appeared to be the most likely decisive triggering factor in regions prone to induced earthquakes. Along these lines, Walsh III and Zoback found a clear correlation between areas in Oklahoma where waste saltwater is being injected on a large scale and areas experiencing increased earthquake activity. Science, this issue p. 1336; Sci. Adv. 10.1126/sciadv.1500195 (2015).

Abstract:
Over the past 5 years, parts of Oklahoma have experienced marked increases in the number of small- to moderate-sized earthquakes. In three study areas that encompass the vast majority of the recent seismicity, we show that the increases in seismicity follow 5- to 10-fold increases in the rates of saltwater disposal. Adjacent areas where there has been relatively little saltwater disposal have had comparatively few recent earthquakes. In the areas of seismic activity, the saltwater disposal principally comes from “produced” water, saline pore water that is coproduced with oil and then injected into deeper sedimentary formations. These formations appear to be in hydraulic communication with potentially active faults in crystalline basement, where nearly all the earthquakes are occurring. Although most of the recent earthquakes have posed little danger to the public, the possibility of triggering damaging earthquakes on potentially active basement faults cannot be discounted. Increasingly frequent earthquakes in Oklahoma are linked to saltwater disposal. Increasingly frequent earthquakes in Oklahoma are linked to saltwater disposal.

Abstract:
A key issue in the assessment of hazard due to induced seismicity from fluid injection activity is to determine the potential ground motions. Although wastewater disposal typically receives the most attention, hydraulic fracturing is increasingly recognized as a significant source of seismic hazard. We present an analysis of the ground motions from the three largest events of 2014 that occurred along the deformation front marking the western boundary of the stable Canadian craton: an M 4.0 and an M 4.2 near Fort St. John (FSJ), British Columbia, and an M 3.9 near Rocky Mountain House (RMH), Alberta. The two FSJ events were likely induced by hydraulic fracturing activities in the region. Although the cause of the RMH event remains unclear, it is of interest because it is of similar magnitude to the other events and had significant consequences to the public. The event triggered an automatic shutdown of a nearby gas plant and a subsequent precautionary flaring of gas, and several hundred people were without power for a prolonged period. We examine the ground motions and intensities for these events. We find that ground motions at frequencies up to about 2 Hz are in agreement with corresponding observations for similar-sized events in California and with the predictions of applicable empirical ground-motion prediction equations. However, high-frequency ground motions appear to be lower than those predicted, suggesting that these events may be associated with a low stress drop; we believe that this is likely a focal depth effect, which may be a mitigating factor that limits high-frequency ground motions from induced events. Our preliminary findings suggest that moderate-induced events (M 4-5) may be damaging to nearby infrastructure, because the shallow focal depth may result in localized strong ground motions to which some infrastructure may be vulnerable; this is a particular concern in low-to-moderate seismicity regions, because seismic design measures for structures in these regions may be minimal. Our results highlight the importance of seismic monitoring in the immediate vicinity of fluid injection sites (both wastewater disposal and hydraulic fracturing) to accurately characterize injection-induced seismicity and ultimately mitigate the associated risk.

Abstract:
A case study of seismicity induced by hydraulic fracturing operations near Fox Creek, Alberta, is used to evaluate the extent to which the potential for induced seismicity at a site alters the pre-existing hazard from natural seismicity. We find that in low-to-moderate seismicity environments, the hazard from an induced-seismicity source, if one is activated in close proximity to a site, can greatly exceed the hazard from natural background seismicity at most probabilities of engineering interest, over a wide frequency range. The most important parameters in determining the induced-seismicity hazard are the activation probability and the b-value of the initiated sequence. Uncertainty in the value of the key input parameters to a hazard analysis implies large uncertainty (more than an order of magnitude) in the likelihood of strong shaking.

Abstract:
Within central Alberta, Canada, a new sequence of earthquakes has been recognized as of 1 December 2013 in a region of previous seismic quiescence near Crooked Lake, 30km west of the town of Fox Creek. We utilize a cross-correlation detection algorithm to detect more than 160 events to the end of 2014, which is temporally distinguished into five subsequences. This observation is corroborated by the uniqueness of waveforms clustered by subsequence. The Crooked Lake Sequences have come under scrutiny due to its strong temporal correlation (>99.99%) to the timing of hydraulic fracturing operations in the Duvernay Formation. We assert that individual subsequences are related to fracturing stimulation and, despite adverse initial station geometry, double-difference techniques allow us to spatially relate each cluster back to a unique horizontal well. Overall, we find that seismicity in the Crooked Lake Sequences is consistent with first-order observations of hydraulic fracturing induced seismicity.

Abstract:
Earthquakes occurring close to hydrocarbon fields under production are often under critical view of being induced or triggered. However, clear and testable rules to discriminate the different events have rarely been developed and tested. The unresolved scientific problem may lead to lengthy public disputes with unpredictable impact on the local acceptance of the exploitation and field operations. We propose a quantitative approach to discriminate induced, triggered, and natural earthquakes, which is based on testable input parameters. Maxima of occurrence probabilities are compared for the cases under question, and a single probability of being triggered or induced is reported. The uncertainties of earthquake location and other input parameters are considered in terms of the integration over probability density functions. The probability that events have been human triggered/induced is derived from the modeling of Coulomb stress changes and a rate and state-dependent seismicity model. In our case a 3-D boundary element method has been adapted for the nuclei of strain approach to estimate the stress changes outside the reservoir, which are related to pore pressure changes in the field formation. The predicted rate of natural earthquakes is either derived from the background seismicity or, in case of rare events, from an estimate of the tectonic stress rate. Instrumentally derived seismological information on the event location, source mechanism, and the size of the rupture plane is of advantage for the method. If the rupture plane has been estimated, the discrimination between induced or only triggered events is theoretically possible if probability functions are convolved with a rupture fault filter. We apply the approach to three recent main shock events: (1) the Mw 4.3 Ekofisk 2001, North Sea, earthquake close to the Ekofisk oil field; (2) the Mw 4.4 Rotenburg 2004, Northern Germany, earthquake in the vicinity of the Söhlingen gas field; and (3) the Mw 6.1 Emilia 2012, Northern Italy, earthquake in the vicinity of a hydrocarbon reservoir. The three test cases cover the complete range of possible causes: clearly “human induced,” “not even human triggered,” and a third case in between both extremes.

Abstract:
We investigate possible links between seismicity and fluid injection in the Williston basin in the north-central United States, focusing on the region around the Bakken formation unconventional hydrocarbon play. Here, we show earthquakes are rarer near injection wells in the Williston basin than in the Fort Worth basin of Texas or in central Oklahoma. To identify earthquakes, we analyze seismograms collected by Earth-Scope USArray temporary stations, deployed on a grid with 70 km spacing. During the September 2008 May 2011 study period, we identified only nine regional earthquakes; of these only three were situated near injection wells. The reason why Williston basin earthquakes are so scarce is unclear. In both the Bakken and Barnett Shale play regions, injection volumes increased significantly in late 2007, and both areas have very low levels of natural seismicity. Oklahoma has experienced much higher rates of apparently induced seismicity than either region, possibly because injection volumes are higher in some wells in Oklahoma.

Abstract:
In November 2013, a series of earthquakes began along a mapped ancient fault system near Azle, Texas. Here we assess whether it is plausible that human activity caused these earthquakes. Analysis of both lake and groundwater variations near Azle shows that no significant stress changes were associated with the shallow water table before or during the earthquake sequence. In contrast, pore-pressure models demonstrate that a combination of brine production and wastewater injection near the fault generated subsurface pressures sufficient to induce earthquakes on near-critically stressed faults. On the basis of modelling results and the absence of historical earthquakes near Azle, brine production combined with wastewater disposal represent the most likely cause of recent seismicity near Azle. For assessing the earthquake cause, our research underscores the necessity of monitoring subsurface wastewater formation pressures and monitoring earthquakes having magnitudes of similar to M2 and greater. Currently, monitoring at these levels is not standard across Texas or the United States.

Abstract:
Earthquakes may be induced by a wide range of anthropogenic activities such as mining, fluid injection and extraction, and hydraulic fracturing. In recent years, the increased occurrence of induced seismicity and the impact of some of these earthquakes on the built environment have heightened both public concern and regulatory scrutiny, motivating the need for a framework for the management of induced seismicity. Efforts to develop systems to enable control of seismicity have not yet resulted in solutions that can be applied with confidence in most cases. The more rational approach proposed herein is based on applying the same risk quantification and mitigation measures that are applied to the hazard from natural seismicity. This framework allows informed decision-making regarding the conduct of anthropogenic activities that may cause earthquakes. The consequent risk, if related to non-structural damage (when re-location is not an option), can be addressed by appropriate financial compensation. If the risk poses a threat to life and limb, then it may be reduced through the application of strengthening measures in the built environment-the cost of which can be balanced against the economic benefits of the activity in question-rather than attempting to ensure that some threshold on earthquake magnitude or ground-shaking amplitude is not exceeded. However, because of the specific characteristics of induced earthquakes-which may occur in regions with little or no natural seismicity-the procedures used in standard earthquake engineering need adaptation and modification for application to induced seismicity.

Abstract:
Injection of wastes into the deep subsurface has become a contentious issue, particularly in emerging regions of oil and gas production. Experience in other regions suggests that injection is an effective waste management practice and that widespread environmental damage is unlikely. Over the past several decades, 23 km3 of water has been injected into the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB). The oil and gas industry has injected most of this water but large amounts of injection are associated with mining activities. The amount of water injected into this basin during the past century is 2 to 3 orders magnitude greater than natural recharge to deep formations in the WCSB. Despite this large-scale disturbance to the hydrogeological system, there have been few documented cases of environmental problems related to injection wells. Deep injection of waste appears to be a low risk activity based on this experience but monitoring efforts are insufficient to make definitive statements. Serious uncharacterized legacy issues could be present. Initiating more comprehensive monitoring and research programs on the effects of injection in the WCSB could provide insight into the risks associated with injection in less developed sedimentary basins.

Abstract:
We conducted three-dimensional coupled fluid-flow and geomechanical modeling of fault activation and seismicity associated with hydraulic fracturing stimulation of a shale-gas reservoir. We simulated a case in which a horizontal injection well intersects a steeply dipping fault, with hydraulic fracturing channeled within the fault, during a 3-h hydraulic fracturing stage. Consistent with field observations, the simulation results show that shale-gas hydraulic fracturing along faults does not likely induce seismic events that could be felt on the ground surface, but rather results in numerous small microseismic events, as well as aseismic deformations along with the fracture propagation. The calculated seismic moment magnitudes ranged from about −2.0 to 0.5, except for one case assuming a very brittle fault with low residual shear strength, for which the magnitude was 2.3, an event that would likely go unnoticed or might be barely felt by humans at its epicenter. The calculated moment magnitudes showed a dependency on injection depth and fault dip. We attribute such dependency to variation in shear stress on the fault plane and associated variation in stress drop upon reactivation. Our simulations showed that at the end of the 3-h injection, the rupture zone associated with tensile and shear failure extended to a maximum radius of about 200 m from the injection well. The results of this modeling study for steeply dipping faults at 1000 to 2500 m depth is in agreement with earlier studies and field observations showing that it is very unlikely that activation of a fault by shale-gas hydraulic fracturing at great depth (thousands of meters) could cause felt seismicity or create a new flow path (through fault rupture) that could reach shallow groundwater resources.

Abstract:
Large areas of the United States long considered geologically stable with little or no detected seismicity have recently become seismically active. The increase in earthquake activity began in the mid-continent starting in 2001 (1) and has continued to rise. In 2014, the rate of occurrence of earthquakes with magnitudes (M) of 3 and greater in Oklahoma exceeded that in California (see the figure). This elevated activity includes larger earthquakes, several with M > 5, that have caused significant damage (2, 3). To a large extent, the increasing rate of earthquakes in the mid-continent is due to fluid-injection activities used in modern energy production (1, 4, 5). We explore potential avenues for mitigating effects of induced seismicity. Although the United States is our focus here, Canada, China, the UK, and others confront similar problems associated with oil and gas production, whereas quakes induced by geothermal activities affect Switzerland, Germany, and others. Hazard may be reduced by managing injection activities Hazard may be reduced by managing injection activities

Abstract:
Precise relative hypocentres of seismic events induced by long-term fluid injection at the Paradox Valley Unit (PVU) brine disposal well provide constraints on the subsurface geological structure and compliment information available from deep seismic reflection and well data. We use the 3-D spatial distribution of the hypocentres to refine the locations, strikes, and throws of subsurface faults interpreted previously from geophysical surveys and to infer the existence of previously unidentified subsurface faults. From distinct epicentre lineations and focal mechanism trends, we identify a set of conjugate fracture orientations consistent with shear-slip reactivation of late-Palaeozoic fractures over a widespread area, as well as an additional fracture orientation present only near the injection well. We propose simple Mohr-Coulomb fracture models to explain these observations. The observation that induced seismicity preferentially occurs along one of the identified conjugate fracture orientations can be explained by a rotation in the direction of the regional maximum compressive stress from the time when the fractures were formed to the present. Shear slip along the third fracture orientation observed near the injection well is inconsistent with the current regional stress field and suggests a local rotation of the horizontal stresses. The detailed subsurface model produced by this analysis provides important insights for anticipating spatial patterns of future induced seismicity and for evaluation of possible additional injection well sites that are likely to be seismically and hydrologically isolated from the current well. In addition, the interpreted fault patterns provide constraints for estimating the maximum magnitude earthquake that may be induced, and for building geomechanical models to simulate pore pressure diffusion, stress changes and earthquake triggering.

Abstract:
We systematically re-analyzed historical seismograms to verify the existence of background seismicity in the Horn River Basin of northeast British Columbia before the start of regional shale gas development. We also carefully relocated local earthquakes that occurred between December 2006 and December 2011 to delineate their spatiotemporal relationship with hydraulic fracturing (HF) operations in the region. Scattered seismic events were detected in the Horn River Basin throughout the study periods. The located seismicity within 100 km of the Fort Nelson seismic station had a clearly increasing trend, specifically in the Etsho area where most local HF operations were performed. The number of events was increased from 24 in 2002-2003 (prior to HF operations) to 131 in 2011 (peak period of HF operations). In addition, maximum magnitude of the events was shifted from M-L 2.9 to M-L 3.6 as the scale of HF operation expanded from 2006-2007 to 2011. Based on our relocated earthquake catalog, the overall b value is estimated at 1.21, which is higher than the average of tectonic/natural earthquakes of similar to 1.0. Our observations highly support the likelihood of a physical relationship between HF operation and induced seismicity in the Horn River Basin. Unfortunately, due to the sparse station density in the region, depth resolution is poor for the vast majority of events in our study area. As new seismograph stations are established in northeast British Columbia, both epicentral mislocation and depth uncertainty for future events are expected to improve significantly.

Abstract:
Felt seismicity induced by hydraulic fracturing is very rare, with only a handful of reported cases worldwide. Using an optimized multistation cross‐correlation template‐matching routine, 77 earthquakes were identified in Poland Township, Mahoning County, Ohio, that were closely related spatially and temporally to active hydraulic fracturing operations. We identified earthquakes as small as local magnitudes (ML) ∼1 up to 3, potentially one of the largest earthquakes induced by hydraulic fracturing in the United States. These events all occurred from 4 to 12 March 2014, and the rate decayed once the Ohio Department of Natural Resources issued a shutdown of hydraulic fracturing at a nearby well on 10 March. Using a locally derived velocity model and double‐difference relocation, the earthquakes occurred during six stimulation stages along two horizontal well legs that were located ∼0.8 km away. Nearly 100 stimulation stages in nearby wells at greater distances from the earthquake source region did not coincide with detected seismicity. During the sequence, hypocenters migrated ∼600 m along an azimuth of 083°, defining a vertically oriented plane of seismicity close to the top of the Precambrian basement. The focal mechanism determined for the ML 3 event had a vertically oriented left‐lateral fault plane consistent with the earthquake distribution and the regional stress field. The focal mechanism, orientation, and depth of hypocenters were similar to those of the 2011 Youngstown earthquake sequence that occurred 18 km to the northwest and was correlated with wastewater injection instead of hydraulic fracturing. Considering the relatively large magnitude of the Poland Township events and the b‐value of 0.89, it appears the hydraulic fracturing induced slip along a pre‐existing fault/fracture zone optimally oriented in the regional stress field.

Abstract:
Hydraulic fracturing (fracking), using high pressures and a low viscosity fluid, allow the extraction of large quantiles of oil and gas from very low permeability shale formations. The initial production of oil and gas at depth leads to high pressures and an extensive distribution of natural fractures which reduce the pressures. With time these fractures heal, sealing the remaining oil and gas in place. High volume fracking opens the healed fractures allowing the oil and gas to flow to horizontal production wells. We model the injection process using invasion percolation. We use a 2D square lattice of bonds to model the sealed natural fractures. The bonds are assigned random strengths and the fluid, injected at a point, opens the weakest bond adjacent to the growing cluster of opened bonds. Our model exhibits burst dynamics in which the clusters extend rapidly into regions with weak bonds. We associate these bursts with the microseismic activity generated by fracking injections. A principal object of this paper is to study the role of anisotropic stress distributions. Bonds in the y-direction are assigned higher random strengths than bonds in the x-direction. We illustrate the spatial distribution of clusters and the spatial distribution of bursts (small earthquakes) for several degrees of anisotropy. The results are compared with observed distributions of microseismicity in a fracking injection. Both our bursts and the observed microseismicity satisfy Gutenberg-Richter frequency-size statistics.

Abstract:
The Paradox Valley Unit (PVU), a salinity control project in southwest Colorado, disposes of brine in a single deep injection well. Since the initiation of injection at the PVU in 1991, earthquakes have been repeatedly induced. PVU closely monitors all seismicity in the Paradox Valley region with a dense surface seismic network. A key factor for understanding the seismic hazard from PVU injection is the maximum magnitude earthquake that can be induced. The estimate of maximum magnitude of induced earthquakes is difficult to constrain as, unlike naturally occurring earthquakes, the maximum magnitude of induced earthquakes changes over time and is affected by injection parameters. We investigate temporal variations in maximum magnitudes of induced earthquakes at the PVU using two methods. First, we consider the relationship between the total cumulative injected volume and the history of observed largest earthquakes at the PVU. Second, we explore the relationship between maximum magnitude and the geometry of individual seismicity clusters. Under the assumptions that: (i) elevated pore pressures must be distributed over an entire fault surface to initiate rupture and (ii) the location of induced events delineates volumes of sufficiently high pore-pressure to induce rupture, we calculate the largest allowable vertical penny-shaped faults, and investigate the potential earthquake magnitudes represented by their rupture. Results from both the injection volume and geometrical methods suggest that the PVU has the potential to induce events up to roughly MW 5 in the region directly surrounding the well; however, the largest observed earthquake to date has been about a magnitude unit smaller than this predicted maximum. In the seismicity cluster surrounding the injection well, the maximum potential earthquake size estimated by these methods and the observed maximum magnitudes have remained steady since the mid-2000s. These observations suggest that either these methods overpredict maximum magnitude for this area or that long time delays are required for sufficient pore-pressure diffusion to occur to cause rupture along an entire fault segment. We note that earthquake clusters can initiate and grow rapidly over the course of 1 or 2 yr, thus making it difficult to predict maximum earthquake magnitudes far into the future. The abrupt onset of seismicity with injection indicates that pore-pressure increases near the well have been sufficient to trigger earthquakes under pre-existing tectonic stresses. However, we do not observe remote triggering from large teleseismic earthquakes, which suggests that the stress perturbations generated from those events are too small to trigger rupture, even with the increased pore pressures.

Abstract:
Gas extraction from the Groningen gasfield in the northern Netherlands has led to localised earthquakes which are projected to become more severe. The social impacts experienced by local residents include: damage to property; declining house prices; concerns about the chance of dykes breaking; feelings of anxiety and insecurity; health issues; and anger. These social and emotional impacts are exacerbated by the increasing distrust Groningen people have towards the national government and the gas company, NAM, a partnership between Shell and ExxonMobil. The earthquakes have reopened discussions about the distribution of benefits from gas production and the extent to which benefits are retained locally. Mitigation of the impacts is attempted, but the lack of trust decreases the effectiveness of the mitigation measures. The extent of this experience of previously-unforeseen, unanticipated impacts suggests that a new social and environmental impact assessment needs to be undertaken, and a new Social Impact Management Plan (SIMP) and Impacts and Benefits Agreement (IBA) developed, so that the project can regain its legitimacy and social licence to operate. In addition to conventional gas, this paper has wider relevance for unconventional gas developments, for example shale gas extraction by hydraulic fracturing methods (fracking).

Abstract:
Increased rates of seismicity in tectonically quiescent regions like the midcontinent region of the United States have been hypothesized to be related to human activities such as oil and gas production and wastewater injection. It can be difficult to establish how human activities relate to earthquakes, particularly when local seismic networks are not available to provide a high quality characterization of the seismic sequence in question. Here, we employ a multi-station waveform cross-correlation approach to evaluate the relationships between earthquakes associated with the 2011-12 Youngstown, Ohio seismic sequence and the injection history of a local wastewater disposal well. Utilizing data recorded by four regional seismic stations 50-200 km away from Youngstown, we demonstrate that high-resolution results can be achieved without utilizing costly and scientifically focused local seismic deployments. Compared to the number of events recorded using standard detection methodologies, we realize a 25-fold increase in detected seismicity (282 detected events) during the sequence, and allow us with confidence to interpret a direct link between seismicity and well injection volumes. Using a combination of absolute and relative location techniques, we demonstrate that seismicity migrated from below the injection well towards the west, along a line consistent with a nodal plane of the largest earthquake in the sequence. We are able to separate the seismic sequence into three distinct phases, consistent with changes in injection rates and maximum injection pressures. In addition, using daily injection volume records, we can identify two families of similar earthquakes. The first family, occurring early in the sequence and close to the injection well, and followed a recurrence pattern that lagged injection activity by 1 day. The second family, occurred later in the sequence and further from the well and displayed a 4 day lag. We interpret these relationships to be to be related to pore pressure diffusion rates within the fault network responsible for the seismicity. Collectively our technique shows the high quality of results possible when only a few regional seismic stations are available for monitoring.

Abstract:
We describe the origin of felt seismicity during the hydraulic fracturing of the Carboniferous Bowland Shale at the Preese Hall 1 exploration well near Blackpool in the UK during 2011. The seismicity resulted from the interaction of hydraulic fracturing and a fault, the location of which was unknown at the time but has subsequently been located and does not intersect the well borehole. Waveform cross correlation is used to detect 50 events in the sequence. A representative hypocenter and strike-slip focal mechanism is calculated using the best recorded seismic event. The hypocenter is calculated to lie 300–400 m east, and 330–360 m below the injection point and shown to lie on a fault imaged using 3-D seismic at a depth of about 2930 m. The 3-D survey shows that not only the event hypocenter but also the focal mechanism correlates strongly with a subsequently identifiable transpressional fault formed during the Late Carboniferous (Variscan) basin inversion.

Abstract:
A series of earthquakes in 2011 near Youngstown, OH, has been a focal point for discussions of seismicity induced by a nearby wastewater disposal well. Utilizing an efficient waveform template matching procedure, the optimal correlation template to study the Youngstown sequence was identified by varying parameters such as the stations utilized, frequency passband, and seismogram length. A catalog composed of 566 events was identified between January 2011 and February 2014. Double-difference relocation refines seismicity to a similar to 800 m linear streak from the Northstar 1 injection well to the WSW along the same strike as the fault plane of the largest event. Calculated Gutenberg-Richter b-values are consistent with trends observed in other regions with seismicity induced by fluid injection. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Abstract:
The furore that has arisen in the UK over induced microseismicity from 'fracking' for shale gas development, which has resulted in ground vibrations strong enough to be felt, requires the urgent development of an appropriate regulatory framework. We suggest that the existing regulatory limits applicable to quarry blasting (i.e. peak ground velocities (PGV) in the seismic wavefield incident on any residential property of 10 mms(-1) during the working day, 2 mms(-1) at night, and 4.5 mms(-1) at other times) can be readily applied to cover such induced seismicity. Levels of vibration of this order do not constitute a hazard: they are similar in magnitude to the 'nuisance' vibrations that may be caused by activities such as walking on wooden floors, or by large vehicles passing on a road outside a building. Using a simple technique based on analysis of the spectra of seismic S waves, we show that this proposed daytime regulatory limit for PGV is likely to be satisfied directly above the source of a magnitude 3 induced earthquake at a depth of 2.5 km, and illustrate how the proposed limits scale in terms of magnitudes of induced earthquakes at other distances. Previous experience indicates that the length of the fracture networks that are produced by 'fracking' cannot exceed 600 m; the development of a fracture network of this size in one single rupture would correspond to an induced earthquake c. magnitude 3.6. Events of that magnitude would result in PGV above our proposed regulatory limit and might be sufficient to cause minor damage to property, such as cracked plaster; we propose that any such rare occurrences could readily be covered by a system of compensation similar to that used over many decades for damage caused by coal mining. However, it is highly unlikely that future 'fracking' in the UK would cause even this minor damage, because the amount of 'force' applied in 'fracking' tends to be strictly limited by operators: this is because there is an inherent disincentive to fracture sterile overburden, especially where this may contain groundwater that could flood-out the underlying gas-producing zones just developed. For the same reason, seismic monitoring of 'fracking' is routine; the data that it generates could be used directly to police compliance with any regulatory framework. Although inspired by UK conditions and debates, our proposals might also be useful for other regulatory jurisdictions.

Abstract:
Unconventional oil and gas production provides a rapidly growing energy source; however, high-production states in the United States, such as Oklahoma, face sharply rising numbers of earthquakes. Subsurface pressure data required to unequivocally link earthquakes to injection are rarely accessible. Here we use seismicity and hydrogeological models to show that fluid migration from high-rate disposal wells in Oklahoma is potentially responsible for the largest swarm. Earthquake hypocenters occur within disposal formations and upper-basement, between 2-5 km depth. The modeled fluid pressure perturbation propagates throughout the same depth range and tracks earthquakes to distances of 35 km, with a triggering threshold of ~0.07 MPa. Although thousands of disposal wells operate aseismically, four of the highest-rate wells are capable of inducing 20% of 2008-2013 central US seismicity.

Abstract:
Historically, seismicity documented in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin has been relatively quiescent and earthquakes are usually restricted to the foreland belt of the Rocky Mountains. However, exceptional clusters of events, which have remained active for decades, are recognized in Alberta. In this study we investigate the seismicity in this region using data obtained from recently established regional arrays, emphasizing the relationship between a disposal well in the Cordel Field and a nearby cluster of previously reported earthquakes. We explore temporal correlations of wastewater pumping rates and local seismic activity dating back to 1960. We find that the first statistically significant increase in seismicity lags the onset of wastewater injection (October 1991) by similar to 3.33 years. In particular, the waveform similarity of 32 events are analyzed from continuous data recorded at NOR, a nearby (similar to 30 km) station operated by the University of Alberta starting in September of 2006. Results from this analysis suggest that many events are well correlated in the characteristics of the waveforms and thus are likely to share a similar origin and source mechanism. The most prolific of these multiplets repeats more than 10 times sporadically throughout the entire duration of recorded data from October 2006 to March 2012. Despite the limited availability of nearby stations, which adversely affects the resolution of our analysis, hypocenter depths could be relatively accurately determined from waveform synthesis and double difference methods. The results of our analysis provide first-order evidence that the seismicity is consistent with fluid injection-induced events.

Abstract:
In November 2011, a M5.0 earthquake occurred less than a day before a M5.7 earthquake near Prague, Oklahoma, which may have promoted failure of the mainshock and thousands of aftershocks along the Wilzetta fault, including a M5.0 aftershock. The M5.0 foreshock occurred in close proximity to active fluid injection wells; fluid injection can cause a buildup of pore fluid pressure, decrease the fault strength, and may induce earthquakes. Keranen et al. [] links the M5.0 foreshock with fluid injection, but the relationship between the foreshock and successive events has not been investigated. Here we examine the role of coseismic Coulomb stress transfer on earthquakes that follow the M5.0 foreshock, including the M5.7 mainshock. We resolve the static Coulomb stress change onto the focal mechanism nodal plane that is most consistent with the rupture geometry of the three M ≥ 5.0 earthquakes, as well as specified receiver fault planes that reflect the regional stress orientation. We find that Coulomb stress is increased, e.g., fault failure is promoted, on the nodal planes of ~60% of the events that have focal mechanism solutions, and more specifically, that the M5.0 foreshock promoted failure on the rupture plane of the M5.7 mainshock. We test our results over a range of effective coefficient of friction values. Hence, we argue that the M5.0 foreshock, induced by fluid injection, potentially triggered a cascading failure of earthquakes along the complex Wilzetta fault system.

Abstract:
Analysis of numerous case histories of earthquake sequences induced by fluid injection at depth reveals that the maximum magnitude appears to be limited according to the total volume of fluid injected. Similarly, the maximum seismic moment seems to have an upper bound proportional to the total volume of injected fluid. Activities involving fluid injection include (1) hydraulic fracturing of shale formations or coal seams to extract gas and oil, (2) disposal of wastewater from these gas and oil activities by injection into deep aquifers, and (3) the development of enhanced geothermal systems by injecting water into hot, low-permeability rock. Of these three operations, wastewater disposal is observed to be associated with the largest earthquakes, with maximum magnitudes sometimes exceeding 5. To estimate the maximum earthquake that could be induced by a given fluid injection project, the rock mass is assumed to be fully saturated, brittle, to respond to injection with a sequence of earthquakes localized to the region weakened by the pore pressure increase of the injection operation and to have a Gutenberg-Richter magnitude distribution with a b value of 1. If these assumptions correctly describe the circumstances of the largest earthquake, then the maximum seismic moment is limited to the volume of injected liquid times the modulus of rigidity. Observations from the available case histories of earthquakes induced by fluid injection are consistent with this bound on seismic moment. In view of the uncertainties in this analysis, however, this should not be regarded as an absolute physical limit.

Abstract:
Between November 2009 and September 2011 the EarthScope USArray program deployed ∼25 temporary seismograph stations on a 70-km grid in south-central Texas between 27°N–31°N and 96°W–101°W. This area includes the Eagle Ford Shale. For decades this geographic region has produced gas and oil from other strata using conventional methods, but recent developments in hydrofracturing technology has allowed extensive development of natural gas resources from within the Eagle Ford. Our study surveys small-magnitude seismic events and evaluates their correlation with fluid extraction and injection in the Eagle Ford, identifying and locating 62 probable earthquakes, including 58 not reported by the U.S. Geological Survey. The 62 probable earthquakes occur singly or in clusters at 14 foci; of these foci, two were situated near wells injecting recently increased volumes of water; eight were situated near wells extracting recently increased volumes of oil and/or water; and four were not situated near wells reporting significant injection/extraction increases. Thus in this region, while the majority of small earthquakes may be triggered/induced by human activity, they are more often associated with fluid extraction than with injection. We also investigated the M W 4.8 20 October 2011 Fashing earthquake—the largest historically reported earthquake in south-central Texas—that occurred two weeks after the removal of the temporary USArray stations. A field study indicated that the highest-intensity (MMI VI) region was about 10 km south of 2010–2011 foreshock activity, and that there were no high-volume injection wells within 20 km of the MMI V–VI region or the foreshocks. However, the 20 October 2011 earthquake did coincide with a significant increase in oil/water extraction volumes at wells within the MMI V–VI region, and this was also true for previous earthquakes felt at Fashing in 1973 and 1983. In contrast, our study found significant increases in injection prior to an mbLG3.6 20 July 1991 earthquake near Falls City, Texas. Thus the Eagle Ford geographic region, with seismic activity associated both with extraction and injection, appears to be more complex than the Barnett Shale of northeast Texas, where a similar survey found possible correlations only with fluid injection.

Abstract:
We compile published examples of induced earthquakes that have occurred since 1929 that have magnitudes equal to or greater than 1.0. Of the 198 possible examples, magnitudes range up to 7.9. The potential causes and magnitudes are (a) mining (M 1.6–5.6); (b) oil and gas field depletion (M 1.0–7.3); (c) water injection for secondary oil recovery (M 1.9–5.1); (d) reservoir impoundment (M 2.0–7.9); (e) waste disposal (M 2.0–5.3); (f) academic research boreholes investigating induced seismicity and stress (M 2.8–3.1); (g) solution mining (M 1.0–5.2); (h) geothermal operations (M 1.0–4.6) and (i) hydraulic fracturing for recovery of gas and oil from low-permeability sedimentary rocks (M 1.0–3.8). Reactivation of faults and resultant seismicity occurs due to a reduction in effective stress on fault planes. Hydraulic fracturing operations can trigger seismicity because it can cause an increase in the fluid pressure in a fault zone. Based upon the research compiled here we propose that this could occur by three mechanisms. Firstly, fracturing fluid or displaced pore fluid could enter the fault. Secondly, there may be direct connection with the hydraulic fractures and a fluid pressure pulse could be transmitted to the fault. Lastly, due to poroelastic properties of rock, deformation or ‘inflation’ due to hydraulic fracturing could increase fluid pressure in the fault or in fractures connected to the fault. The following pathways for fluid or a fluid pressure pulse are proposed: (a) directly from the wellbore; (b) through new, stimulated hydraulic fractures; (c) through pre-existing fractures and minor faults; or (d) through the pore network of permeable beds or along bedding planes. The reactivated fault could be intersected by the wellbore or it could be 10s to 100s of metres from it. We propose these mechanisms have been responsible for the three known examples of felt seismicity that are probably induced by hydraulic fracturing. These are in the USA, Canada and the UK. The largest such earthquake was M 3.8 and was in the Horn River Basin, Canada. To date, hydraulic fracturing has been a relatively benign mechanism compared to other anthropogenic triggers, probably because of the low volumes of fluid and short pumping times used in hydraulic fracturing operations. These data and analysis should help provide useful context and inform the current debate surrounding hydraulic fracturing technology.

Abstract:
The widespread use of hydraulic fracturing (HF) has raised concerns about potential upward migration of HF fluid and brine via induced fractures and faults. We developed a relationship that predicts maximum fracture height as a function of HF fluid volume. These predictions generally bound the vertical extent of microseismicity from over 12,000 HF stimulations across North America. All microseismic events were less than 600 m above well perforations, although most were much closer. Areas of shear displacement (including faults) estimated from microseismic data were comparatively small (radii on the order of 10 m or less). These findings suggest that fracture heights are limited by HF fluid volume regardless of whether the fluid interacts with faults. Direct hydraulic communication between tight formations and shallow groundwater via induced fractures and faults is not a realistic expectation based on the limitations on fracture height growth and potential fault slip.

Abstract:
Movers and Shakers We tend to view earthquakes as unpredictable phenomena caused by naturally shifting stresses in Earth's crust. In reality, however, a range of human activity can also induce earthquakes. Ellsworth (p. 10.1126/science.1225942) reviews the current understanding of the causes and mechanics of earthquakes caused by human activity and the means to decrease their associated risk. Notable examples include injection of wastewater into deep formations and emerging technologies related to oil and gas recovery, including hydraulic fracturing. In addition to directly causing increased local seismic activity, activities such as deep fluid injection may have other ramifications related to earthquake occurrence. Van der Elst et al. (p. 164; see the news story by Kerr) demonstrate that in the midwestern United States, some areas with increased human-induced seismicity are also more prone to further earthquakes triggered by the seismic waves from large, remote earthquakes. Improved seismic monitoring and injection data near deep disposal sites will help to identify regions prone to remote triggering and, more broadly, suggest times when activities should, at least temporarily, be put on hold. A recent dramatic increase in seismicity in the midwestern United States may be related to increases in deep wastewater injection. Here, we demonstrate that areas with suspected anthropogenic earthquakes are also more susceptible to earthquake-triggering from natural transient stresses generated by the seismic waves of large remote earthquakes. Enhanced triggering susceptibility suggests the presence of critically loaded faults and potentially high fluid pressures. Sensitivity to remote triggering is most clearly seen in sites with a long delay between the start of injection and the onset of seismicity and in regions that went on to host moderate magnitude earthquakes within 6 to 20 months. Triggering in induced seismic zones could therefore be an indicator that fluid injection has brought the fault system to a critical state. Wastewater injected deep underground can make some faults more susceptible to triggering by large remote earthquakes. Wastewater injected deep underground can make some faults more susceptible to triggering by large remote earthquakes.

Abstract:
Earthquakes in unusual locations have become an important topic of discussion in both North America and Europe, owing to the concern that industrial activity could cause damaging earthquakes. It has long been understood that earthquakes can be induced by impoundment of reservoirs, surface and underground mining, withdrawal of fluids and gas from the subsurface, and injection of fluids into underground formations. Injection-induced earthquakes have, in particular, become a focus of discussion as the application of hydraulic fracturing to tight shale formations is enabling the production of oil and gas from previously unproductive formations. Earthquakes can be induced as part of the process to stimulate the production from tight shale formations, or by disposal of wastewater associated with stimulation and production. Here, I review recent seismic activity that may be associated with industrial activity, with a focus on the disposal of wastewater by injection in deep wells; assess the scientific understanding of induced earthquakes; and discuss the key scientific challenges to be met for assessing this hazard.

Abstract:
Over 109 small earthquakes (Mw 0.4–3.9) were detected during January 2011 to February 2012 in the Youngstown, Ohio area, where there were no known earthquakes in the past. These shocks were close to a deep fluid injection well. The 14 month seismicity included six felt earthquakes and culminated with a Mw 3.9 shock on 31 December 2011. Among the 109 shocks, 12 events greater than Mw 1.8 were detected by regional network and accurately relocated, whereas 97 small earthquakes (0.4 < Mw < 1.8) were detected by the waveform correlation detector. Accurately located earthquakes were along a subsurface fault trending ENE-WSW—consistent with the focal mechanism of the main shock and occurred at depths 3.5–4.0 km in the Precambrian basement. We conclude that the recent earthquakes in Youngstown, Ohio were induced by the fluid injection at a deep injection well due to increased pore pressure along the preexisting subsurface faults located close to the wellbore. We found that the seismicity initiated at the eastern end of the subsurface fault—close to the injection point, and migrated toward the west—away from the wellbore, indicating that the expanding high fluid pressure front increased the pore pressure along its path and progressively triggered the earthquakes. We observe that several periods of quiescence of seismicity follow the minima in injection volumes and pressure, which may indicate that the earthquakes were directly caused by the pressure buildup and stopped when pressure dropped.

Abstract:
We have conducted numerical simulation studies to assess the potential for injection-induced fault reactivation and notable seismic events associated with shale-gas hydraulic fracturing operations. The modeling is generally tuned toward conditions usually encountered in the Marcellus shale play in the Northeastern US at an approximate depth of 1500 m (~4500 ft). Our modeling simulations indicate that when faults are present, micro-seismic events are possible, the magnitude of which is somewhat larger than the one associated with micro-seismic events originating from regular hydraulic fracturing because of the larger surface area that is available for rupture. The results of our simulations indicated fault rupture lengths of about 10–20 m, which, in rare cases, can extend to over 100 m, depending on the fault permeability, the in situ stress field, and the fault strength properties. In addition to a single event rupture length of 10–20 m, repeated events and aseismic slip amounted to a total rupture length of 50 m, along with a shear offset displacement of less than 0.01 m. This indicates that the possibility of hydraulically induced fractures at great depth (thousands of meters) causing activation of faults and creation of a new flow path that can reach shallow groundwater resources (or even the surface) is remote. The expected low permeability of faults in producible shale is clearly a limiting factor for the possible rupture length and seismic magnitude. In fact, for a fault that is initially nearly-impermeable, the only possibility of a larger fault slip event would be opening by hydraulic fracturing; this would allow pressure to penetrate the matrix along the fault and to reduce the frictional strength over a sufficiently large fault surface patch. However, our simulation results show that if the fault is initially impermeable, hydraulic fracturing along the fault results in numerous small micro-seismic events along with the propagation, effectively preventing larger events from occurring. Nevertheless, care should be taken with continuous monitoring of induced seismicity during the entire injection process to detect any runaway fracturing along faults.

Abstract:
Significant earthquakes are increasingly occurring within the continental interior of the United States, including five of moment magnitude (Mw) ≥ 5.0 in 2011 alone. Concurrently, the volume of fluid injected into the subsurface related to the production of unconventional resources continues to rise. Here we identify the largest earthquake potentially related to injection, an Mw 5.7 earthquake in November 2011 in Oklahoma. The earthquake was felt in at least 17 states and caused damage in the epicentral region. It occurred in a sequence, with 2 earthquakes of Mw 5.0 and a prolific sequence of aftershocks. We use the aftershocks to illuminate the faults that ruptured in the sequence, and show that the tip of the initial rupture plane is within ∼200 m of active injection wells and within ∼1 km of the surface; 30% of early aftershocks occur within the sedimentary section. Subsurface data indicate that fluid was injected into effectively sealed compartments, and we interpret that a net fluid volume increase after 18 yr of injection lowered effective stress on reservoir-bounding faults. Significantly, this case indicates that decades-long lags between the commencement of fluid injection and the onset of induced earthquakes are possible, and modifies our common criteria for fluid-induced events. The progressive rupture of three fault planes in this sequence suggests that stress changes from the initial rupture triggered the successive earthquakes, including one larger than the first.

Abstract:
Between November 2009 and September 2011, temporary seismographs deployed under the EarthScope USArray program were situated on a 70-km grid covering the Barnett Shale in Texas, recording data that allowed sensing and locating regional earthquakes with magnitudes 1.5 and larger. I analyzed these data and located 67 earthquakes, more than eight times as many as reported by the National Earthquake Information Center. All 24 of the most reliably located epicenters occurred in eight groups within 3.2 km of one or more injection wells. These included wells near Dallas-Fort Worth and Cleburne, Texas, where earthquakes near injection wells were reported by the media in 2008 and 2009, as well as wells in six other locations, including several where no earthquakes have been reported previously. This suggests injection-triggered earthquakes are more common than is generally recognized. All the wells nearest to the earthquake groups reported maximum monthly injection rates exceeding 150,000 barrels of water per month (24,000 m(3)/mo) since October 2006. However, while 9 of 27 such wells in Johnson County were near earthquakes, elsewhere no earthquakes occurred near wells with similar injection rates. A plausible hypothesis to explain these observations is that injection only triggers earthquakes if injected fluids reach and relieve friction on a suitably oriented, nearby fault that is experiencing regional tectonic stress. Testing this hypothesis would require identifying geographic regions where there is interpreted subsurface structure information available to determine whether there are faults near seismically active and seismically quiescent injection wells.